NZIER: Recommends RBNZ to hike OCR by 50 bps in August

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER, the Shadow Board, recommended that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) should hike the OCR by 50 basis points in August and follow up with further tightening.

Key takeaways

The majority view was that a 50 basis points OCR increase in the August meeting is warranted, with only two members recommending a different quantum of tightening (25 basis points and 75 basis points each).

Shadow Board members highlighted the strong inflation pressures in the New Zealand economy as justification for their recommendation for further tightening over the coming year.

Regarding where the OCR should be in a year, Shadow Board members’ views ranged from 3 percent to 4.25 percent.

Signs of slowing in parts of the New Zealand economy highlight the balancing act faced by the Reserve Bank in controlling inflation in the current supply-constrained environment.

Market reaction

NZD/USD remains pressured near-daily lows of 0.6446, at the time of writing, down 0.09% on the day. Looming US-China risks over Taiwan remain a major concern for the market at the start of the week.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

EUR/USD: US Dollar comeback in the makes?

The US Dollar stands victorious at the end of another week, with the EUR/USD pair trading near a four-week low of 1.1742, while the USD retains its strength despite some discouraging American data released at the end of the week. The pair edged higher on Friday, after the United States Supreme Court ruled against President Donald Trump's tariffs, although the advance is not enough to change the latest USD flow.

GBP/USD braces for more pain, as 200-day SMA tested

GBP/USD broke the previous week’s consolidation to the downside, as sellers returned with pomp, smashing the major back toward the levels last seen in late January. The pair tested bids below the 1.3450 barrier as the US Dollar strength largely played out throughout the week, while the Pound Sterling stepped back on expectations of divergent monetary policy outlooks between the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve.

Gold climbs to weekly tops, approaches $5,100/oz

Gold keeps the bid tone well in place at the end of the week, now hitting fresh weekly highs and retargeting the key $5,100 mark per troy ounce. The move higher in the yellow metal comes in response to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and modest losses in the US Dollar.

Week ahead: Markets brace for heightened volatility as event risk dominates

Dollar strength dominates markets as risk appetite remains subdued. A Supreme Court ruling, geopolitics and Fed developments are in focus. Pivotal Nvidia earnings on Wednesday as investors question tech sector weakness. Yen and aussie diverge; both pound and euro could recoup their losses.

Broadening drivers of growth: Unpacking GDP and looking ahead

This week’s data delivered a familiar theme with an important twist. The U.S. economy continues to be shaped by powerful forces in high-tech and AI-related investment, but recent releases suggest the growth story may finally be broadening. At the same time, trade flows are moving in a less supportive direction, reminding us that not all parts of the economy are pulling in sync.

Ripple bulls defend key support amid waning retail demand and ETF inflows

XRP ticks up above $1.40 support, but waning retail demand suggests caution. XRP attracts $4 million in spot ETF inflows on Thursday, signaling renewed institutional investor interest.