- NZD/USD softens to around 0.5660 in Wednesday’s early Asian session, down 0.18% on the day.
- Trump’s tariff threats undermine the China-proxy Kiwi.
- The RBNZ will likely deliver a third jumbo rate cut at its February meeting.
The NZD/USD pair attracts some sellers to near 0.5660 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces some selling pressure after US President Donald Trump said that he is discussing a 10% tariff on China on February 1.
Trump stated on Tuesday that his administration is discussing imposing a 10% tariff on goods imported from China on February 1 because fentanyl is being sent from China to Mexico and Canada, per Reuters. Investors will closely watch the developments surrounding US tariff policies, as China is a major trading partner to New Zealand.
New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was slightly hotter than expected in December. Nonetheless, the overshoot doesn’t appear significant enough to dampen expectations for another jumbo rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in February.
Swaps markets are now pricing in a 90% chance of another 50 basis points (bps) reduction on February 19, adding to the two delivered earlier in the cycle. The RBNZ is expected to deliver a total of 100 bps of rate cuts for the remainder of 2025. The dovish stance of the RBNZ continues to weigh on the Kiwi against the US Dollar (USD).
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD fails to gather traction, remains below 1.1700
EUR/USD fails to gather momentum, trading below 1.1700 at the end of the week. The pair is pulled down by dwindling prospects for an EU-US trade accord, as US President Trump is expected to send a tariff letter to the European Union later today, while the continued demand for the US Dollar also keeps the risk complex under extra pressure.
Meme coins to watch as Bitcoin hits record high
Meme coins Bonk, Dogwifhat, and Floki are positioned to extend gains as the weekly recovery reaches crucial resistance levels. The meme coins gain bullish momentum on the back of Bitcoin’s (BTC) recovery run, hitting a new all-time high on Thursday.
Gold challenges two-week highs near $3,360
Gold gains upside impulse at the end of the week, trading near the $3,360 mark per troy ounce in respose to solid demand from te safe-haven space. Persistent trade uncertainty underpins the ongoing risk-off mood among investors, lending extra wings to the precious metal.
GBP/USD drops below 1.3500, flirts with three-week lows
GBP/USD continues its weekly retracement on Friday, trading at its lowest level in nearly three weeks below the 1.3500 support. The UK's poor GDP statistics drags on the British pound, while the US Dollar continues to profit from safe-haven flows, sending Cable and its risk-related peers to lower levels.
Week ahead – A storm of CPI data and China’s GDP in focus amid trade uncertainty
Dollar attracts safe haven flows amid trade anxiety. US inflation data could shake July Fed cut probability. UK, Canadian and Japanese CPI numbers also on tap. Weak Chinese growth may increase calls for more stimulus.
Best Brokers for EUR/USD Trading
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.