Slow vaccine rollout and increased policy resistance to market pressure leave the Credit Suisse analyst team neutral on NZD/USD.
Outside of housing, the case for hikes is not so clear in NZ
“We remain neutral on NZD and expect NZD/USD to trade between 0.6870 and 0.7200. In AUD/NZD, we think that mean reversion will drive a slow convergence back to 1.0800.
“New Zealand’s vaccine rollout is lagging the rest of the developed world; investors might now reassess the validity of NZ’s so-far successful strategy of ‘micro-lockdowns’.”
“Terms of trade have been aided by resilient dairy prices. Services exports should pick up when the travel bubble with Australia opens, but ultimately the slow vaccine rollout precludes the possibility of a more extensive reopening of the crucial tourism sector.”
“With the government having taken macroprudential measures to cool down housing, the RBNZ is less likely to address the issue through its traditional monetary policy tools. The more fundamentals-driven case for tightening is far from strong: the unemployment rate is still at 2016 levels, domestic CPI metrics remain unthreatening and upside growth potential is limited by closed international borders.”
“Given how responsive the currency has been to changes in expectations around non-traditional monetary policy, we think the RBNZ may prefer to tiptoe around the possibility of tightening in order to avoid an unwelcome rally in the NZD.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to gains near 1.0700, awaits key US data
EUR/USD clings to gains near the 1.0700 level in early Europe on Thursday. Renewed US Dollar weakness offsets the risk-off market environment, supporting the pair ahead of the key US GDP and PCE inflation data.
USD/JPY keeps pushing higher, eyes 156.00 ahead of US GDP data
USD/JPY keeps breaking into its highest chart territory since June of 1990 early Thursday, recapturing 155.50 for the first time in 34 years as the Japanese Yen remains vulnerable, despite looming intervention risks. The focus shifts to Thursday's US GDP report and the BoJ decision on Friday.
Gold closes below key $2,318 support, US GDP holds the key
Gold price is breathing a sigh of relief early Thursday after testing offers near $2,315 once again. Broad risk-aversion seems to be helping Gold find a floor, as traders refrain from placing any fresh directional bets on the bright metal ahead of the preliminary reading of the US first-quarter GDP due later on Thursday.
Injective price weakness persists despite over 5.9 million INJ tokens burned
Injective price is trading with a bearish bias, stuck in the lower section of the market range. The bearish outlook abounds despite the network's deflationary efforts to pump the price.
Meta takes a guidance slide amidst the battle between yields and earnings
Meta's disappointing outlook cast doubt on whether the market's enthusiasm for artificial intelligence. Investors now brace for significant macroeconomic challenges ahead, particularly with the release of first-quarter GDP data.