- NZD/USD attracts fresh buyers on Monday and advances to over a two-week high.
- A positive risk tone undermines the Greenback and benefits the risk-sensitive Kiwi.
- Hawkish Fed expectations should limit the USD losses and cap the upside for the pair.
The NZD/USD pair gains strong positive traction on the first day of a new week and rallies to over a two-week high, around the 0.5980-0.5985 region during the Asian session.
Against the backdrop of receding fears of an Israel-Iran war, the latest optimism over Israel-Hamas peace talks in Cairo boosts investors' appetite for riskier assets. This is evident from a generally positive tone around the equity markets, which prompts some selling around the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and benefits the risk-sensitive Kiwi. That said, hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations should help limit any meaningful USD downfall and cap the upside for the NZD/USD pair.
Investors seem convinced that the US central bank will keep interest rates higher for longer amid still sticky inflation and the bets were reaffirmed by the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday. The hawkish outlook, meanwhile, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and supports prospects for the emergence of some USD dip-buying, warranting some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move for the NZD/USD pair.
Traders might also prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting starting on Tuesday. Apart from this, investors this week will confront the release of important US macro data scheduled at the beginning of a new month, including the closely-watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday. This, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and help in determining the next leg of a directional move for the NZD/USD pair.
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