NZD/USD refreshes daily top just below mid-0.6200s amid positive risk tone, rising wedge

The NZD/USD pair attracts fresh buying near the 0.6200 mark on Thursday and builds on its steady intraday ascent through the early European session. The pair is currently placed just below mid-0.6200s, up over 0.25% for the day, and for now, seems to have stalled the overnight rejection slide from a technically significant 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

As investors look past softer data from New Zealand, a generally positive tone around the equity markets undermines the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and turns out to be a key factor benefitting the risk-sensitive Kiwi. Against the backdrop of easing fears of a widespread banking crisis, hopes for a strong economic recovery in China boost investors' confidence and remain supportive of the prevalent risk-on environment. The optimism is fueled by comments from China's Premier Li Qiang, promising more stimulus to boost domestic spending and delivering reforms that can help stimulate growth.

The upside for the NZD/USD pair, however, seems limited, at least for the time being, amid reviving bets for further policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The takeover of Silicon Valley Bank by First Citizens Bank & Trust Company calmed market nerves about the contagion risk. Furthermore, the fact that no further cracks have emerged in the banking sector over the past two weeks raises hopes that a full-blown banking crisis has been averted. This could allow the US central bank to move back to its inflation-fighting interest rate hikes, which could lend support to the Greenback.

Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through and sustained strength above the 50-day SMA before positioning for any further appreciating move for the NZD/USD pair. Investors also seem reluctant and might prefer to wait for the release of the US Core PCE Price Index - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge on Friday - before placing aggressive directional bets. In the meantime, Thursday's US economic docket, featuring the final Q4 GDP print and Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, might influence the USD and provide some impetus to the major later during the early North American session.

From a technical perspective the pair is precariously positioned at the lower boundary line of a rising wedge pattern which has formed in the midst of NZD/USD's medium term downtrend. The pair's first attempt to breakout from the wedge on March 27, failed and the second attmept on Wednesday has equally reversed and seen prices recover. Given the longer term bearish picture, however, the pair looks vulnerable to a breakout lower. Such a breakdown would require confirmation from pushing below the March 27 lows at 0.6180 but if successful would probably fall to an initial target of 0.6160 and the 200-DMA, followed by 0.6120 – the 61.8% extension of the height of the wedge – and in a more bearish scenario, to 0.6060, the 100% extension.

Technical levels to watch