NZD/USD holds gains near 0.5750 following Retail Sales, China’s annual policy blueprint

NZD/USD strengthens as Retail Sales rose 0.9% QoQ in Q4 2024, marking the strongest growth in three years.
China’s annual policy statement highlights plans to advance rural reforms and drive comprehensive rural revitalization.
The US Dollar weakens amid disappointing US economic data released last week.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

NZD/USD recovers recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 0.5750 during the Asian hours on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthened following the release of domestic Retail Sales data, which rose 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2024 — the strongest increase in three years — after a revised flat reading in the previous period and surpassing forecasts of 0.6%.

The Chinese government released its annual policy statement for 2025 on Sunday. The statement outlines plans to advance rural reforms and promote comprehensive rural revitalization. Growing optimism around China’s stimulus measures could further boost the NZD and the NZD/USD pair, given China’s importance as a major trading partner for New Zealand.

However, the upside of the NZD/USD pair could be restrained as US President Donald Trump signed a memorandum on Friday instructing the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (US) to limit Chinese investments in strategic sectors. Reuters cited a White House official saying that the national security memorandum seeks to encourage foreign investment while safeguarding US national security interests from potential threats posed by foreign adversaries like China.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, depreciates below 106.50 at the time of writing. The DXY faced challenges following the downbeat S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released last week.

The US Composite PMI fell to 50.4 in February, down from 52.7 in the previous month. In contrast, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6 in February from 51.2 in January, surpassing the forecast of 51.5. Meanwhile, the Services PMI declined to 49.7 in February from 52.9 in January, falling short of the expected 53.0.

Economic Indicator

Retail Sales (QoQ)

The Retail Sales data, released by Statistics New Zealand on a quarterly basis, measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in New Zealand. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the QoQ reading comparing sales volumes in the reference quarter with the previous quarter. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

The quarterly release of Retail Sales by the Statistics New Zealand directly reflects on the country’s consumer spending. Stronger sales could drive inflation higher, leading the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to hike interest rates so as to maintain its inflation-containment mandate. Thus, the indicator impacts the New Zealand dollar significantly. A better-than-expected print tends to be NZD bullish. The data is published about a month and a half after the quarter ends.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

AUD/USD bulls seem hesitant below 0.7050 ahead of RBA on Tuesday

AUD/USD reverses an Asian session dip on Monday as renewed optimism over Iran diplomacy boosts investor confidence, keeping a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar and supporting the risk-sensitive Aussie. Spot prices, however, remain below the one-month high, touched last Thursday, as bulls wait for the crucial RBA decision before taking fresh positions.

USD/JPY climbs to 158.00 neighborhood as BoJ uncertainty weighs on the JPY

The USD/JPY pair gains some positive traction at the start of a new week, recovering further from Friday's post-Bank of Japan (BoJ) swing low to sub-157.00 levels. The momentum lifts spot prices to the 158.00 neighborhood during the Asian session and seems unaffected by fresh intervention warning from Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama.

Gold trims intraday gains; trades below $3,900 as Fed hike bets counter weak USD

Gold trims part of its modest intraday gains, trading with a mild positive bias below the $3,900 mark during Monday’s early European session. The US Dollar attracts fresh sellers amid optimism over a potential diplomatic breakthrough to end the US-Iran war and offers some support to the commodity. Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve rate-hike bets remain firmly on the table amid energy-driven inflation concerns, keeping the non-yielding yellow metal near the October 2025 low touched on Friday.

Dogecoin risks deeper slide as whales diverge

Dogecoin hovers around $0.075 on Monday after falling for the fifth consecutive week since the end of September. Santiment data shows diverging whale activity, as large holders reduce their positions while smaller whale wallets accumulate tokens. Meanwhile, weakening on-chain metrics and a deteriorating technical outlook suggest that DOGE could remain vulnerable to further losses.

Middle East War updates: Iran warns of expanded strikes against US despite progress in talks

Here’s a brief recap of the key developments in the Middle East war that occurred over the weekend, which are expected to have a significant impact on markets in the upcoming week.

The 2% inflation target came from a throwaway remark. It now moves trillions

The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal grew out of an off-the-cuff remark by a New Zealand politician in 1988. Bond investors still price long-term US debt as if 2% holds, so a change in how the Fed measures inflation would move markets.