- NZD/USD recently slipped back to the 0.6750 level as the dollar picked up amid safe-haven flows.
- The kiwi and other risk-sensitive currencies are performing poorly as equities tumble amid Fed tightening fears.
NZD/USD has dipped back to the 0.6750 level in recent trade and has recently been probing last week’s lows in the 0.6740 area. At present, the pair trades with losses of about 0.5%, worse than that of its antipodean counterpart, but roughly in line with that being seen in other USD majors. Having failed in its early European session attempts to test its 21-day moving average in the 0.6780s, NZD/USD has come under selling pressure as markets adopt a more risk-off posture during US trade. Further risk-off induced USD strength may see the pair break lower towards a test of December lows in the 0.6700 area.
The yen and US dollar are the best performing G10 currencies amid a safe-haven bid as Wall Street continues to crater. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 index recently fell more than 10% back from its recent record highs, classing the latest downturn for the big-tech heavy index as a “correction”. This is undermining the appeal of risk-sensitive currencies such as the kiwi. The main driver of risk-off at the start of the new week appears to be fears regarding a faster pace of Fed monetary policy normalisation this year.
Risk appetite has been ropey since last week’s hawkish Fed minutes that showed strong support on the FOMC for the Fed to get going with rate hikes and balance sheet reduction in 2022. Last Friday’s strong US labour market report, strong in the sense that wage inflation picked up and measures of slack (such as the unemployment rate) improved more than expected, at least, is being viewed as endorsing the Fed’s newer, more hawkish mantra. US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data on Wednesday is expected to do the same, as it is likely to show headline inflation surpassing 7.0% YoY.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be speaking on Tuesday and Vice Chairwoman Lael Brainard on Thursday at their respective nomination confirmation hearings. These remarks will be the highlights as far as Fed rhetoric is concerned this week, though other FOMC members will also be orating. There is also the (not so) small matter of the US December Retail Sales report on Friday and the preliminary January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, with the latter a timely gauge on the economic impact of the spread of Omicron. Risk appetite and USD flows will be the dominant force for NZD/USD this week, with New Zealand Building Consents data on Thursday unlikely to receive much market attention.
Note: All information on this page is subject to change. The use of this website constitutes acceptance of our user agreement. Please read our privacy policy and legal disclaimer. Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD regains traction, recovers above 1.0700
EUR/USD regained its traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0700 in the American session. The US Dollar struggles to preserve its strength after the data from the US showed that the economy grew at a softer pace than expected in Q1.
GBP/USD returns to 1.2500 area in volatile session
GBP/USD reversed its direction and recovered to 1.2500 after falling to the 1.2450 area earlier in the day. Although markets remain risk-averse, the US Dollar struggles to find demand following the disappointing GDP data.
Gold climbs above $2,340 following earlier drop
Gold fell below $2,320 in the early American session as US yields shot higher after the data showed a significant increase in the US GDP price deflator in Q1. With safe-haven flows dominating the markets, however, XAU/USD reversed its direction and rose above $2,340.
XRP extends its decline, crypto experts comment on Ripple stablecoin and benefits for XRP Ledger
Ripple extends decline to $0.52 on Thursday, wipes out weekly gains. Crypto expert asks Ripple CTO how the stablecoin will benefit the XRP Ledger and native token XRP.
After the US close, it’s the Tokyo CPI
After the US close, it’s the Tokyo CPI, a reliable indicator of the national number and then the BoJ policy announcement. Tokyo CPI ex food and energy in Japan was a rise to 2.90% in March from 2.50%.