NZD/USD appreciates to near 0.6100 as traders await US inflation

NZD/USD rebounds ahead of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for Thursday.
The US core CPI is expected to remain steady at 3.4% year-over-year in June.
The New Zealand Dollar may limit its upside due to dovish sentiment surrounding the RBNZ.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

NZD/USD recovers its recent losses, trading around 0.6090 during the European session on Thursday. Traders await the release of the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, scheduled for release on Thursday, for more clarity on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy direction.

Market forecasts generally predict that the annualized US core CPI for the year ending in June will remain steady at 3.4%. Meanwhile, headline CPI inflation is expected to increase to 0.1% month-over-month in June, compared to the previous flat reading of 0.0%.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell underscored the importance of closely monitoring the labor market, highlighting its significant deterioration. Additionally, Powell expressed confidence in the downward trend of inflation, following his remarks on Tuesday that emphasized the necessity of further data to strengthen confidence in the inflation outlook.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faced pressure following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) dovish monetary policy statement. The central bank held its cash rate steady at 5.5% on Wednesday as expected but hinted at possible rate cuts in August if inflation decreases as anticipated.

ING’s FX strategist Francesco Pesole observed, "The Bank displayed greater confidence in disinflation in the statement, noting that 'restrictive monetary policy has significantly reduced consumer price inflation.”

Read the full article: A surprise dovish tilt by the RBNZ – ING

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The CPI Ex Food & Energy excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

AUD/USD sits at two-month lows near 0.6950 after Australian CPI data

AUD/USD is sitting at two-month lows near 0.6950 in the Asian session on Wednesday, as below-expectations August Australian underlying CPI data pours cold water on expectations for further RBA interest rate hikes. Chinese PMI data also fail to inspire the Australian Dollar, despite a pause in the US Dollar advance.

USD/JPY stays weak below 157.00 amid Japanese intervention risks

USD/JPY keeps losses below 157.00 in the Asian session on Wednesday, as hawkish BoJ expectations, along with intervention risks, underpin the Japanese Yen, countering dismal domestic factory output and retail sales data. Meanwhile, a broad US Dollar retreat also collaborates to the pair's downside.

Gold flat lines below $4,200, as focus shifts to US ADP and PCE

Gold extends its consolidative price move in the European session, trading near the $4,200 mark. Falling US bond yields drag the US Dollar away from the two-month high, touched on Tuesday, and act as a tailwind for the commodity. However, hawkish US Federal Reserve expectations cap the upside as traders await important US macro data before placing fresh directional bets on the non-yielding bullion.

Bitcoin consolidates below $85,000 amid rising US Treasury yields, derivatives deleveraging

Bitcoin consolidates near $83,000 at the time of writing on Wednesday after bulls failed to close above the key $85,000 level earlier this week. The Crypto King's investors remain cautious amid rising US Treasury yields and several key macroeconomic data releases due this week.

US core PCE inflation set to rise in August, pressuring the Federal Reserve

The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index data for August on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Market participants closely watch the PCE Price Index because it is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation and could influence its policy outlook.

Silver is more volatile than Gold ahead of PCE and NFP. This chart shows the positioning gap

The market’s attention is focused on American data this week, but there’s something only those with a trained eye may be looking at: Gold and Silver positioning gap. Financial markets are moving on fears, mostly related to persistently high energy prices driven by the Middle East war. Sure, the US Dollar (USD) is strong, but at what cost?