NVIDIA's next leg up: Bullish breakout sets sights on $163–$174 after clearing $135

Denis Joeli Fatiaki Independent Analyst

Breaking $135 opens the door to $163–$174 amid AI data-centre demand and institutional flows.

Highlights

NVDA cleared the 131.42–134.48 demand zone and closed at 135.32 on May 16.
Volume-profile POC (115.43–126.48) now acts as strong support; VWAP remains bullish.
Near-term targets: 139.42 (VAH), 142.47, then all-time high 153.13.
Pullback entry zone: 131.42–134.48; stop-loss below 131.42 (or 126.48 for wider buffer).
Key catalysts: May 28 Q1 earnings, AI data-centre capex updates, China export regulations.

Technical analysis

Price structure and channels

NVDA has re-entered its medium-term bullish channel after reclaiming 126.00, rallying from 102.50 to 135.32 in six weeks. Higher highs and higher lows within the ascending regression channel confirm sustained buyer conviction.

Volume profile and VWAP

Value area (115.43–126.48): High-volume node providing demand support.
VWAP: Price has held above the VWAP midline since early April, signalling institutional accumulation.

Key levels

Support:
- 131.42–134.48 (breakout retest zone)
- 126.48 (prior VAH)
- 115.43 (POC)
Resistance:
- 139.42 (VAH)
- 142.47
- 153.13 (all-time intraday high)
- 163.40–174.45 (upper channel boundary)

Fundamental drivers

AI & data-centre demand: Q1 Data Centre revenue hit $22.6 billion (up 427% YoY), driven by hyperscaler orders for Hopper/Blackwell GPUs.
Strategic partnerships: The new 500 MW AI data-centre partnership with Saudi firm Humain initially deployed 18,000 GB300 chips.
Earnings outlook: Consensus expects Q2 revenue of ~$28 billion and double-digit EPS growth into FY 2026.
Valuation & upgrades: Recent price-target raises from UBS, Melius, and others reinforce a constructive outlook amid a $3 trillion market cap.

Outlook and trading plan

Bullish continuation
- Aggressive entry: Long on daily close > 134.48; target 139.42 → 142.47.
- Conservative entry: Wait for pullback into 131.42–134.48; confirm demand with uptick in volume.
Risk management
- Stop-Loss: Below 131.42 for breakout entries; below 126.48 for deeper buffers.
Profit taking
- Scale out 25–50% at 139.42; next tranche at 142.47.
- Trail stops to lock in gains on remaining position, aiming for 153.13 and beyond.
Watchlist catalysts
- May 28 Q1 earnings: Guidance and margin outlook.
- AI Capex trends: Announcements from major data-centre customers.
- Geopolitical & regulatory: China export rules, U.S. trade policy updates.

Author

Denis Joeli Fatiaki

Independent Analyst

Denis Joeli Fatiaki possesses over a decade of extensive experience as a multi-asset trader and Market Strategist.

GBP/USD remains offered; bears target 1.3600

GBP/USD now leaves behind part of its recent recovery and revisits the low 1.3600s at the beginning of the week. Indeed, Cable trades with a mild downward bias amid decent gains in the Greenback as investors remain wary of upcoming US data releases and the Jackson Hole event.

EUR/USD slips back to 1.1660, daily lows

EUR/USD remains slightly offered and drops toward the 1.1660 zone to hit daily troughs on Monday. The pair’s decline follows a decent advance in the US Dollar while investors continue to closely follow developments from the US money market.

Gold poised to extend its bullish run

Gold surrenders part of its initial advance, although it keeps its bullish pace well and sound above the $4,600 mark per troy ounce on Monday. The precious metal’s move higher comes despite slight gains in the US Dollar and a modest pullback in US Treasury yields across the curve.

Here's what I learned trading meme coins

I’ve been trading cryptocurrencies for the past seven years, with meme coins becoming one of the most exciting and implacable parts of my experience. I love them because they represent internet culture and community sentiment, and, let’s be honest, extreme speculation. Newly launched meme coins were especially tempting: get in early enough, I thought, and a small bet could turn into a huge return.

Bessent’s presser in focus

Preview: Busy week ahead, with Bessent kicking this off today, with things wrapping up with Warsh at Jackson Hole. For a month that should have been a temporary period of ‘quiet’, we had anything but last week, with the bond market and tariffs front and centre.

$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.