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Nvidia: The flagship suffers a significant blow

Nvidia's stock took a nosedive, even after the chipmaker reported a record-smashing $30 billion in sales—more than doubling its previous earnings. The sharp drop is stoking fears of an impending tech bubble.

Nvidia's earnings release has become a spectacle on par with the U.S. NFP report, drawing AI enthusiasts to event parties like the Super Bowl. But despite the fanfare, shares in the world's second-largest publicly traded company tumbled as much as 8% in choppy after-hours trading on Wednesday.

As the bellwether for the tech industry, which now touches nearly every aspect of global business and our daily lives, Nvidia's performance is scrutinized like a crystal ball for the broader market and the U.S. economy. So when this flagship takes a hit, it has the potential to drag the entire fleet down with it.

Nvidia continues its high-wire act, defying gravity for the seventh straight quarter by beating expectations on both the top and bottom lines. But in the topsy-turvy world of post-report trading, even a solid earnings beat wasn’t enough to keep investors smiling. At this point, it’s not just about beating estimates—markets expect records to be obliterated, and today’s impressive balance sheet performance didn’t quite deliver the earth-shattering blow that Wall Street had hoped for. In a market where "just great" isn't significant enough, even Nvidia's stellar numbers couldn’t escape a touch of investor disappointment.

The market’s adverse reaction is likely puzzling to some, especially considering Nvidia didn't just clear the analyst bar—they cleared by over 1 billion. Sales soared to $30 billion, smashing the $28.9 billion forecast and doubling last year’s numbers for the same quarter. Yet, despite these eye-popping figures, the stock still took a hit. In today’s market, even record-breaking isn’t enough to satisfy the insatiable appetite for ever-bigger numbers.

Let’s be clear: these are out-of-the-park numbers—spectacular by any measure. But when you're Nvidia, surpassing expectations is just the first obstacle. The real challenge is vaulting over the sky-high bar set by investors, who, let's face it, aren't always the most stable bunch. Given the sheer magnitude of Nvidia’s stock surge and its earnings extravaganza, even industry specialists are scratching their heads trying to figure out what qualifies as a "beat" these days. In this game, it's not just about hitting home runs; you’ve got to shatter the scoreboard to keep everyone happy.

Future gains in global tech stocks will likely be more closely tied to US macroeconomic trends and could become increasingly sensitive to political developments in the semiconductor sector. However, given AI's far-reaching impact, with nearly every company racing to modernize their computing infrastructure, it's hard not to maintain a positive long-term outlook on the broader AI theme. We're only at the beginning of what promises to be a decade-long transformation. Hence, the structural growth story remains compelling, even if short-term gains start to reflect more conventional market forces.

Author

Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes

SPI Asset Management

With more than 25 years of experience, Stephen has a deep-seated knowledge of G10 and Asian currency markets as well as precious metal and oil markets.

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