Norway: Unemployment and retail sales pointing in different directions – Nordea Markets


Erik Johannes Bruce, analyst at Nordea Markets, suggests that for the Norwegian economy, retail sales on the weak side, but unemployment on the strong side will send mixed signals, but the Norges Bank will probably give most weight to sign of further labor market tightening.

Key Quotes

“One main takeaway from Norges Bank’s surprise lift of the rate path last week is that the Norwegian central bank is more “data dependent” than we had expected.”

“This week’s two most important key figures, March registered unemployment and February retail sales, will probably point in opposite directions. They are both out on Friday.”

“We expect a sharp drop in retail sales (-1.7% m/m) in February mainly because prices on goods, in contrast to the normal pattern, rose sharply this month (retail sales are in volume).”

“We were somewhat surprised to see Norges Bank’s new forecast for a rather flat development in registered unemployment in the next months given its upward revision to growth in employment. We forecast a drop in unemployment by between 500- 1000 persons s.a. in March. That is somewhat less than the trend, but stronger than Norges Bank’s forecast. Registered unemployment is Norges Bank’s preferred measure for unemployment and essential for its view on the output gap and hence rates. We will give a figure for unemployment on the strong side more weight than a month with weak retail sales.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD rebounds after dismal US PMIs

EUR/USD is trading closer to 1.0850, rising in response to weak US PMIs, with the services one pointing to contraction. Earlier, German Manufacturing PMI beat estimates. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD advances to 1.2950 after US data

GBP/USD is trading around 1.2950, taking advantage of US weakness stemming from a downfall in Markit's Services PMI in the US. In Britain, the Manufacturing PMI exceeded estimates. 

GBP/USD News

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Consolidation process underway

The Crypto board continues to be immersed in an emotional leg-breaking, consistently punishing the emotional state of the traders with its continuous changes of direction.

Read more

XAU/USD unstoppable, breaks to fresh 2020 highs, approaching $1650/oz

XAU/USD is trading in an uptrend above its main daily simple moving averages (SMAs) while breaking above a bull channel. Gold is printing fresh 2020 highs hitting $1646.64 per ounce on an intraday basis.  

Gold News

FXStreet launches Real-Time Trading Signals

FXStreet Signals offers access to explanatory live webinars, real-time notifications when signals are triggered and exclusive membership to the company’s Telegram group, where users get direct guidance by our analysts and get room to discuss and interact.

More info

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures