Metals: Tariffs are coming – ING

Industrial metals traded under pressure at the start of the new week, with Copper dropping from a two-month high, amid concerns over China’s economic growth following weak factory activity and profit data, despite Beijing’s recent efforts to boost the economy, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

Tariff threats are unlikely to help sentiment

“We have seen plenty of support measures from Beijing over the past few months, but, so far, they have failed to have a meaningful impact on industrial metals demand.”

“China’s official manufacturing PMI index fell to 49.1, the lowest since August, while the non-manufacturing gauge for construction and services dropped to 50.2. An uncertain path for China’s economic recovery remains one of the key downside risks to our industrial metals outlook for 2025.”

“Tariff threats are unlikely to help sentiment with reports that President Trump is set to impose tariffs on steel, Aluminum and Copper imports. There is very little detail on exactly what will be covered. According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), the US has a net import reliance of 13%, 44% and 46% for iron & steel, Aluminum and Copper, respectively.”