Merck trade idea: How to play the long term trend decelerating highe

Introduction

VolatilityMarkets suggests top quant trade ideas to take advantage of trending markets.

Market summary

MRK last price was $ 109.89. In the short term Merck has been negatively accelerating lower. In the long term Merck has been decelerating higher. Over the past 20 days, the MRK price increased 12 days and decreased 8 days. For every up day, there were 0.67 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 1.0053% The average return on days where the price decreased is -1.0624% Over the past 20 Days, the price has increased by 3.46% percent. Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been 0.173% percent. With the long term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a long trade idea with an overnight time horizon.

The trade idea

Buy $ 193,268 USD of Merck, take profit at $ 110.4585 level with 50.0% odds for a $ 999 USD gain, stop out at $ 109.3214 with 50.0% odds for a $ 1,000 USD loss through O/N time horizon.

Intraday predictions

MRK trend analysis

MRK last price was $ 109.89. The long term trend decelerating higher is stronger than the short term trend negatively accelerating lower. This trade goes long when the price was moving higher but decelerating over the past 20 days.

MRK value analysis

Over the past 20 days, the MRK price increased 12 days and decreased 8 days. For every up day, there were 0.67 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 1.0053% The average return on days where the price decreased is -1.0624% Over the past 20 Days, the price has increased by 3.46% percent. Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been 0.173% percent.

MRK worst/best case scenario analysis

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for MRK, is $ 108.2273, and the best case scenario overnight is $ 111.5527. levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade.

We are 50% confident that $ 109.3214 could trade and that $ 110.4585 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Expected Range

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for MRK, is $ 108.2273, and the best case scenario overnight is $ 111.5527. levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 109.3214 could trade and that $ 110.4585 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Probability vs payout chart

This graph contrasts the percentage payout of holding a position vs the probability that the payout occurs. The red and green columns represent the probability of stopping out and taking profit and their associated payouts.

Key Takeaways:

• Price today $ 109.89

• Over the past 20 days, the MRK price increased 12 days and decreased 8 Days.

• For every up day, there were 0.67 down days.

• The average return on days where the price increased is 1.0053%.

• The average return on days where the price decreased is -1.0624%.

• Over the past 20 Days, the price has increased by 3.46% percent.

• Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been 0.173% percent.

• Over the past 20 days, The price has on average been decelerating: $ -0.0232 per day higher.

• Over the last session, the price decreased by $ -0.20.

• Over the last session, the price decreased by -0.182 %.

• Over the last session, the price decelerated by $ -0.63.