Markets: A busy first half of the year for politics – Standard Chartered

Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce, senior economist at Standard Chartered, suggests that India’s general elections in April-May is likely to have a highly uncertain outcome, broader geopolitical implications, and possible market or political risks.

Key Quotes

“The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has enjoyed a single-party majority for the past five years, could risk losing its majority and having to seek coalition partners.”

“South Africa’s May elections will test the popularity of the ruling party and its leader, President Cyril Ramaphosa. In Argentina, October elections will put President Mauricio Macri’s reformist agenda to the test, bringing Argentina back into focus after it featured prominently in the 2018 EM market rout.”

“In developed markets, European Parliament elections in May will take place amid exceptional circumstances: a core EU member (the UK) will have just left the bloc for the first time, while several EU countries are clashing with Brussels. Other key emerging markets going to the polls this year include Nigeria, Indonesia, Poland and the Philippines. These elections will also be closely watched given the prominence of these countries in the EM space or the potential for surprises.”

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