Kazakhstan continues to produce too much oil – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Kazakhstan continues to produce significantly more oil than agreed and apparently has no plans to reduce production in May, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Saudi Arabia may push for a strong increase in oil production

"According to the Kazakh Energy Ministry, daily production, including condensates, is likely to amount to 277 thousand tons in May, the same level as in April. In March, production amounted to 260 thousand tons per day. The production reported for April and May corresponds to a good 2 million barrels per day."

"Condensates account for around 260 thousand barrels per day, meaning that crude oil production is likely to be around 1.75 million barrels per day. The ceiling agreed for May would therefore be exceeded by around 300 thousand barrels per day if the compensatory cuts are not taken into account."

"This increases the risk that Saudi Arabia will also push for a strong increase in oil production in July. The downside risks for oil prices are therefore increasing further."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD gains traction near 0.7100 as the post-Fed USD rally pauses

AUD/USD finds fresh buyers and retakes 0.7100 in the Asian session on Thursday as the US Dollar pauses its hawkish Fed-inspired rally to its highest level since late July. However, RBA rate-hike bets and hopes for US-Iran diplomatic efforts lift risk sentiment and support the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar and the major.

USD/JPY reverses a dip below 156.00 as focus shifts to BoJ

USD/JPY is reversing a brief dip below 156.00 in the Asian session on Thursday, looking to snap a three-day winning streak to a nearly two-week top set the previous day. The US Dollar pauses following the post-Fed rally to seven-week highs, while a more hawkish repricing of the BoJ's policy normalization path supports the Japanese Yen. This keeps the pair's upside limited, with the focus now shifting to the BoJ policy decision due on Friday.

Gold: Upside appears capped by $4,400

Gold climbs sharply and clinches fresh weekly peaks on Thursday, although the bull run seems to have met some initial hurdle around the $4,400 zone per troy ounce. The yellow metal’s rebound reverses three daily declines in a row and follows the modest retracement in the US Dollar as well as another negative performance of crude oil prices.

BoE recap: A cautious stance amid rising inflation risks

The Bank of England left Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% but delivered a distinctly hawkish message as its inflation outlook deteriorated sharply.

One hike down, more to come? The Fed’s new rate path says yes

The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised its Fed Fund Target Range (FFTR) range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in a unanimous decision, saying the move would support a timelier return to its 2% inflation goal.

How Japan became the World's Banker and why that era may be ending

Japan's ultra-low interest rates helped finance trillions of dollars in global investments for more than a decade, making the Japanese Yen one of the world’s cheapest sources of funding. With the Bank of Japan expected to tighten policy again this week, that advantage may be entering a new phase. While most major economies raised interest rates, Japan remained the world's outlier.