Japanese Yen struggles near nine-month low against USD as BoJ rate-hike doubts persist
- The Japanese Yen continues with its relative underperformance amid the BoJ uncertainty.
- Invention fears and the risk-off impulse could offer some support to the safe-haven JPY.
- Economic concerns keep the USD depressed and might cap gains for the USD/JPY pair.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles to attract any meaningful buyers and languishes near a nine-month trough, touched against its American counterpart the previous day. Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Wednesday expressed her administration's preference for interest rates to stay low and asked for close coordination on policy with the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This further cooled market expectations that an interest-rate hike is coming soon and has been a key factor behind the JPY's relative underperformance.
Traders, however, still see a 24% chance of a BoJ rate hike move in December and around 46% odds for an increase by January. Furthermore, the recent decline in the JPY prompted Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and Economy Minister Minoru Kiuchi to issue a warning on currency movements, fueling intervention fears. This, along with the risk-off impulse, could support the JPY. The USD, on the other hand, languishes near a two-week low amid economic concerns and might contribute to capping the USD/JPY pair.
Japanese Yen remains vulnerable amid Takaichi preference for lower interest rates
- Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said this Friday that the government is not in a position to set a new numerical target for the nationwide minimum wage. Takaichi argued that the government's role is to create conditions that allow companies to lift pay faster than inflation.
- Earlier this week, Takaichi said that appropriate monetary policy management should be conducted to achieve both strong economic growth and stable price increases. The remarks were seen as a signal of Takaichi's preference for interest rates to stay low and undermined the Japanese Yen.
- Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued a verbal warning on Wednesday, saying that she will be watching FX moves with a sense of urgency. Moreover, Japan's Economy Minister Minoru Kiuchi said on Friday that a weak JPY can push up CPI through import costs.
- BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda pointed to resilient consumption driven by stronger household incomes and improving labour-market conditions, also noting that underlying inflation is gradually moving toward the BoJ’s 2% goal. This leaves doors open for an imminent rate hike.
- US President Donald Trump signed a bill to unlock funding and end the longest government shutdown late on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a senior White House official said that key economic reports for October – employment details and inflation data – may not be released at all.
- A growing number of Federal Reserve policymakers signaled caution on further easing amid the lack of economic data. In fact, financial market-based odds of a rate reduction in December have now fallen to 50%. This, however, does little to provide any respite to the US Dollar.
- In fact, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, dived to a fresh two-week trough on Thursday amid economic concerns on the back of a prolonged US government shutdown. This could act as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY fall towards 154.00 could be seen as buying opportunity and remain limited
This week's breakout through the 154.45-154.50 horizontal barrier was seen as a key trigger for the USD/JPY bulls. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone. However, repeated failures to find acceptance above the 155.00 psychological mark warrant some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move. Spot prices might then climb to the 155.60-155.65 intermediate hurdle and eventually aim to reclaim the 156.00 round figure.
On the flip side, any further weakness could be seen as a buying opportunity and find decent support near the 154.00 mark. A convincing break below the said handle, however, might prompt some technical selling and drag the USD/JPY pair to the 153.60-153.50 region en route to the 153.00 round figure. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which, if broken, might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders and pave the way for a slide towards the 152.15-152.10 area.
Japanese Yen Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.66% | 0.06% | 0.45% | -0.17% | -0.61% | -1.01% | -1.65% | |
| EUR | 0.66% | 0.70% | 1.15% | 0.46% | 0.02% | -0.38% | -1.04% | |
| GBP | -0.06% | -0.70% | 0.53% | -0.24% | -0.67% | -1.08% | -1.72% | |
| JPY | -0.45% | -1.15% | -0.53% | -0.68% | -1.11% | -1.50% | -2.19% | |
| CAD | 0.17% | -0.46% | 0.24% | 0.68% | -0.35% | -0.86% | -1.56% | |
| AUD | 0.61% | -0.02% | 0.67% | 1.11% | 0.35% | -0.41% | -1.06% | |
| NZD | 1.01% | 0.38% | 1.08% | 1.50% | 0.86% | 0.41% | -0.65% | |
| CHF | 1.65% | 1.04% | 1.72% | 2.19% | 1.56% | 1.06% | 0.65% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
