Jackson Hole game plan

Monica Kingsley Monicakingsley

Stocks duly reversed the NVDA earnings and guidance euphoria, breaking even 4,425 with ease. Even the old 4,385 support from from many weeks ago, was reached – I didn‘t count on such an easy bearish ride, but the selling picked extraordinary steam regardless of a not-so-bad day in Treasuries. Odds are thus not only for a crawl back to 4,407, but also to 4,415 today, still before Powell.

With all the fears of not just more rate hikes, but especially of no rate cuts any time soon, stocks had been quite beaten down this week, and as is usually the case, the positioning would (temporarily) get dialed back next week before stocks continue correcting lower again. Bears would prevail no matter how much inflation data dependency is mentioned.

Of course, I‘ll be covering the moves and reaction across the markets on Twitter – in advance, have a fine weekend, and thank you for all your kindness of late.

Let‘s move right into the charts – today‘s full scale article contains 3 of them.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq outlook

Daily levels are given in the introduction to today‘s article, and I‘m looking for a fine retracement first (as is being played in Intraday Signals due to this being a brief opportunity).before implications of Powell‘s words sink in, which may be as delayed (taking as long to develop) as selling into NVDA earnings.

Author

Monica Kingsley

Monicakingsley

Monica Kingsley is a trader and financial analyst serving countless investors and traders since Feb 2020.

AUD/USD bulls regain control above 0.6950 amid USD retreat

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the previous day's bounce from the weekly low, aiming for 0.7000 in Asia on Friday. The overnight pullback in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar below an 18-month high, which in turn offers some support to the pair. Meanwhile, hawkish RBA expectations also keep the major underpinned.

USD/JPY holds gains near 158.00 after Japan's weak Household Spending data

USD/JPY clings to gains around 158.00 after data showed on Friday that Japan's Household Spending fell for the ninth straight month, undermining the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains depressed as the overnight fall in US bond yields counters a hawkish Fed and geopolitical uncertainties, could cap any downside in the pair.

Gold remains range-bound below $4,200

Gold has given up some ground after an initial bullish attempt to reach weekly highs, returning to below the $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The US Dollar’s strong upside momentum, combined with rising US Treasury yields across the curve, seems to keep further gains in the yellow metal under scrutiny.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?

The Euro is not the sick man of Europe. France's bond market is

EUR/USD remains under pressure, near the 17-month low of 1.1161 reached on Monday. The pair has lost more than 7% since its yearly peak, as concerns over France's public finances increasingly weigh on the single currency. But behind the weakness of the Euro (EUR), the problem does not necessarily lie with the European economy as a whole.