Jackson Hole game plan

Monica Kingsley Monicakingsley

Stocks duly reversed the NVDA earnings and guidance euphoria, breaking even 4,425 with ease. Even the old 4,385 support from from many weeks ago, was reached – I didn‘t count on such an easy bearish ride, but the selling picked extraordinary steam regardless of a not-so-bad day in Treasuries. Odds are thus not only for a crawl back to 4,407, but also to 4,415 today, still before Powell.

With all the fears of not just more rate hikes, but especially of no rate cuts any time soon, stocks had been quite beaten down this week, and as is usually the case, the positioning would (temporarily) get dialed back next week before stocks continue correcting lower again. Bears would prevail no matter how much inflation data dependency is mentioned.

Of course, I‘ll be covering the moves and reaction across the markets on Twitter – in advance, have a fine weekend, and thank you for all your kindness of late.

Let‘s move right into the charts – today‘s full scale article contains 3 of them.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq outlook

Daily levels are given in the introduction to today‘s article, and I‘m looking for a fine retracement first (as is being played in Intraday Signals due to this being a brief opportunity).before implications of Powell‘s words sink in, which may be as delayed (taking as long to develop) as selling into NVDA earnings.

Author

Monica Kingsley

Monicakingsley

Monica Kingsley is a trader and financial analyst serving countless investors and traders since Feb 2020.

GBP/USD trims gains, back to around 1.3500

GBP/USD now surrenders part of the earlier move to multi-week peaks around 1.3530 and comes close to the 1.3500 support on Monday. Cable’s uptick comes in tandem with decent gains in the Greenback, always amid persistent uncertainty lingering over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran talks.

EUR/USD slips to daily lows near 1.1540

EUR/USD now loses further momentum and recedes toward the 1.1540 zone, or daily lows, on Monday. The pair’s bearish performance action comes as investors continue to assess Friday’s disappointing US jobs data in a context where renewed tensions in the Middle East lend decent support to the US Dollar.

Gold clings to daily gains; focus is back to $4,400

Gold picks up pace and advances past the $4,350 mark per troy ounce, adding to Friday’s gains. That said, the yellow metal keeps pushing harder despite the better tone in the US Dollar, and is closely following the Fed’s interest-rate outlook as well as developments in the Middle East

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP eye short-term recovery amid ETF inflows

Cryptocurrency prices are gaining traction on Monday, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading above $65,000, Ethereum (ETH) holding the near-term $1,900 support and Ripple (XRP) hovering above the critical $1.00 demand zone. The broad recovery comes amid capital inflows through US-listed Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).

US Payrolls miss – RBA on deck tomorrow

It would be remiss of me not to kick off this morning’s report with a rundown of last Friday’s US jobs report, which was a belter. Headline payrolls fell by 23,000, versus expectations of an 80,000 gain. The BLS noted that May was revised down by 66,000 (from 129,000) and June by 37,000 (from 57,000), resulting in combined May-June revisions of 103,000 lower than previous reports.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.