Indian Rupee: Stabilisation but recovery hurdles against US Dollar – OCBC

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong observe that the Indian Rupee (INR) faced depreciation pressure as Oil and geopolitics resurfaced, pushing USD/INR towards a one‑month high. He notes that some pressure has eased with Oil off its highs and RBI-linked Dollar sales helping limit losses. Near term, USD/INR should stay relatively contained, though a clean recovery likely needs lower Oil prices.

USD/INR pressure easing with flows and RBI support

"INR came under depreciation pressure as oil/geopolitics moved back into focus. Higher crude prices can pose downside pressure for INR, and USD/INR’s move towards one-month high yesterday suggests that market is again testing INR’s oil sensitivity."

"That said, some of the pressure has eased with oil prices back off highs and the INR is not without support. RBI-linked USD sales appear to have helped limit recent losses, while the flow backdrop has improved at the margin following RBI’s June measures to attract FX inflows via FCNR(B) deposits, external borrowings and wider foreign access to long-end government bonds. "

"Month-to-date foreign net equity and debt inflows also look to have improved marginally. Near term, INR should stay relatively contained, but the bar for a clean recovery is still high unless oil prices resume its move lower."

"USD/INR was last seen at 95.40 levels. Momentum is mild bullish while RSI shows tentative signs of moderation from the recent rise."

"Resistance at 95.55 (50% fibo retracement of 2026 high to June low), 95.90 (61.8% fibo). Support at 95.20 (50 DMA, 38.2% fibo), 94.80/90 levels (21 DMA, 23.6% fibo)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD bulls regain control above 0.6950 amid USD retreat

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the previous day's bounce from the weekly low, aiming for 0.7000 in Asia on Friday. The overnight pullback in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar below an 18-month high, which in turn offers some support to the pair. Meanwhile, hawkish RBA expectations also keep the major underpinned.

USD/JPY holds gains near 158.00 after Japan's weak Household Spending data

USD/JPY clings to gains around 158.00 after data showed on Friday that Japan's Household Spending fell for the ninth straight month, undermining the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains depressed as the overnight fall in US bond yields counters a hawkish Fed and geopolitical uncertainties, could cap any downside in the pair.

Gold remains range-bound below $4,200

Gold has given up some ground after an initial bullish attempt to reach weekly highs, returning to below the $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The US Dollar’s strong upside momentum, combined with rising US Treasury yields across the curve, seems to keep further gains in the yellow metal under scrutiny.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?

The Euro is not the sick man of Europe. France's bond market is

EUR/USD remains under pressure, near the 17-month low of 1.1161 reached on Monday. The pair has lost more than 7% since its yearly peak, as concerns over France's public finances increasingly weigh on the single currency. But behind the weakness of the Euro (EUR), the problem does not necessarily lie with the European economy as a whole.