RBI to shift its policy stance from accommodative to neutral
Analysts at ING Bank believe that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to shift stance from accommodative to neutral in the next policy even though the rate-setting panel may refrain from cutting rates this year.
Key Quotes: “We consider 7% GDP growth a pre-requisite for the RBI to unwind some of its recent policy easing. That’s not on our forecasting horizon out to 2021. A shift in the policy stance to neutral from accommodative is a reasonable starting point for the central bank's next policy meeting in early February.”
USD/INR Price Analysis: Rupee is trapped in a 30 paise range
Indian Rupee is lacking a clear direction bias since Jan. 13. The currency is largely trapped in the 30 paise trading range of 70.70 per US dollar to 71.00 per US dollar, as seen on the hourly line chart. A channel breakdown would imply a continuation of the sell-off from recent highs near 72.00 and could bring a deeper drop toward 70.00.
On the flip side, resistance near 70.22 will likely be put to test if the channel is breached to the higher side. Brent oil seems to have formed a temporary bottom below $64 and looks set for a notable price bounce.
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