IEA cuts demand forecast for OPEC crude oil by 300,000 bpd in 2019

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

In its latest monthly oil market report published on Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) slashed the demand forecasts for the OPEC crude oil for 2019.

Key Highlights:

Rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat.

Inventories in developed nations have increased for four straight months.

Set to jump to 2 mil bpd in the next half-year if current output is maintained.

Record output from Saudi, Russia, US more than offsets declines from Iran, Venezuela.

Leaves global oil demand growth forecast unchanged for 2018 and 2019 at 1.3 mln bpd and 1.4 mln bpd, respectively.

Raises non-OPEC oil output growth forecast to 2.4 mln bpd in 2018 and 1.9 mln bpd 2019, from the previous estimate of 2.2 mln bpd and 1.8 mln bpd, respectively.

Total US oil supply growing by 2.1 mln bpd this year and 1.3 mln bpd during 2019.

OPEC crude output rose 200,000 bpd in October to 32.99 mln bpd, up 240,000 bpd on a year ago.

Cuts forecast for demand for OPEC crude oil by 300,000 bpd to 31.3 mln bpd in 2019, 1.7 mln bpd below current output.

OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 12.1 mln barrels in September to 2.875 bln barrels.

OECD oil inventories rose 58.1 mln barrels, or 630,000 bpd, in q3, biggest rise since 2015.

Sees global implied oil stock build of 2 mln bpd in h1 2019, based on non-OPEC output, global demand.

Shipments of Iranian oil in October were 1.8 mln bpd, down 900,000 bpd vs. May, still unclear how far exports will fall.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

EUR/USD flirts with weekly lows near 1.1770

EUR/USD now comes under further selling pressure, breaking below the 1.1800 support to challenge the area of weekly throughs near 1.1770 on Thursday. The pair’s decline comes in response to marked gains in the US Dollar amid steady geopolitical tensions. Ealier in the day, the ECB’s Lagarde delivered cautious remarks, although the currency remained apathetic.

GBP/USD makes a U-turn, challenges 1.3500

GBP/USD rapidly leaves behind Wednesday’s strong advance, putting the 1.3500 support to the test on Thursday. Cable’s deep pullback follows the strong gains in the Greenback, while investors continue to pencil in a potential BoE rate cut in March.

Gold sticks to the bid bias, flirts with $5,200

Gold is now facing some downside pressure, hovering around the $5,170 region on Thursday. The precious metal adds to Wednesday’s optimism despite the Greenback trades in a firm fashion, although geopolitical tensions in the Middle East keep the yellow metal bid for now.