IEA cuts demand forecast for OPEC crude oil by 300,000 bpd in 2019


In its latest monthly oil market report published on Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) slashed the demand forecasts for the OPEC crude oil for 2019.

Key Highlights:

Rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat.

Inventories in developed nations have increased for four straight months.

Set to jump to 2 mil bpd in the next half-year if current output is maintained.

Record output from Saudi, Russia, US more than offsets declines from Iran, Venezuela.

Leaves global oil demand growth forecast unchanged for 2018 and 2019 at 1.3 mln bpd and 1.4 mln bpd, respectively.

Raises non-OPEC oil output growth forecast to 2.4 mln bpd in 2018 and 1.9 mln bpd 2019, from the previous estimate of 2.2 mln bpd and 1.8 mln bpd, respectively.

Total US oil supply growing by 2.1 mln bpd this year and 1.3 mln bpd during 2019.

OPEC crude output rose 200,000 bpd in October to 32.99 mln bpd, up 240,000 bpd on a year ago.

Cuts forecast for demand for OPEC crude oil by 300,000 bpd to 31.3 mln bpd in 2019, 1.7 mln bpd below current output.

OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 12.1 mln barrels in September to 2.875 bln barrels.

OECD oil inventories rose 58.1 mln barrels, or 630,000 bpd, in q3, biggest rise since 2015.

Sees global implied oil stock build of 2 mln bpd in h1 2019, based on non-OPEC output, global demand.

Shipments of Iranian oil in October were 1.8 mln bpd, down 900,000 bpd vs. May, still unclear how far exports will fall.

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