HUF: July inflation undermines the August rate cut but supports the forint – ING

Thursday's inflation in Hungary surprised slightly to the upside with a rise from 3.7% to 4.1%, but there is a bigger surprise here compared to the National Bank of Hungary's (NBH) forecast of 3.8% year-on-year, ING’s FX strategist Frantisek Taborsky notes.

At least three more cuts this year

“Given the rally we have seen in previous weeks in the HUF rates market, it is not so surprising that the market has started to reprice the current dovish expectations of central bank rate cuts. Still, the market is pricing in at least three cuts or even a little more than that with a chance we could see some movement this month.” 

“That said, our economists say the inflation numbers do not strongly point to a rate cut in August and see room for only two more reductions this year. While we believe the market will stay on the dovish side of market pricing, there is some room for profit-taking and repricing up. HUF is thus getting some boost for gains after two weeks of depreciation.”

“Yesterday, we saw EUR/HUF already moving lower, the most within the CEE region, and we expect more today below 396 and possibly more if rates remain paid.”