How the stock market has fared under Biden

Key points

• A report from US Bank examines the performance of the stock market since Biden took office.

• It compares Biden's results to those of past presidents going back to Ronald Reagan.

• The Bill Clinton years were the best, followed by the Barack Obama years.

With the news that President Joe Biden will not seek a second term, it’s time to examine how the stock market has performed during his administration.

While President Joe Biden’s term is not yet over, it is in the home stretch with the announcement that he will not seek a second term. With that in mind, a new report examines how the stock market has fared during the Biden Administration.

The report, produced by US Bank, which is owned by US Bancorp (NYSE:USB), examines the performance of the stock market since Biden took office and compares it to the performance of past presidents going back to Ronald Reagan in 1981.

Let’s examine the results.

Two bulls and a bear

When Biden took office on January 20, 2021, the S&P 500 was at 3,816. As of the date of the U.S. Bank report, July 12, the large cap benchmark was over 5,600 for a total return of 48% in almost exactly 3.5 years. That’s an annualized return of about 12%, which is higher than the historical average of the S&P 500.

Biden’s term was marked by two separate bull markets, with a bear market sandwiched in between. In 2021, Biden took over in the middle of a bull market and the S&P 500 returned 27% that year, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 21%.

In 2022, U.S. stocks had their worst year since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, as the S&P 500 fell 19% and the Nasdaq was down a whopping 33%.

But the end of 2022 began a new bull market, which we are currently in. In 2023, the S&P 500 climbed 24% while the Nasdaq gained 43%, erasing all of the losses from 2022. It was the highest annual return for the Nasdaq since 2009.

In 2024, the bull market continues as the major large cap indexes have all set all-time highs. Year-to-date as of July 24, the S&P 500 is up 16% while the Nasdaq has increased 18%.

Better than Trump or Obama?

While Biden’s term is not yet over, the stock market during his 3.5 years has trailed his past two predecessors, Donald Trump and Barack Obama.

During the Trump years, from January 20, 2017, to January 20, 2021, the S&P 500 had a total return of 68%.

The first Obama term, from 2009 to 2013, the S&P 500 returned about 85% across the four years, while the second term was slightly lower with a total return of 53%. Combined, the Obama years saw a roughly 182% total return for the S&P 500.

The George W. Bush years were the worst for the markets, as the large cap benchmark was down 12% in his first term and off 31% in his second term. When combined, the S&P 500 was down 40% in his eight years. Those years were marred by two major events — the dotcom bust and three-year bear market that ran from 2000 to 2002, and the Global Financial Crisis from 2007 to 2009.

Clinton years saw the highest returns

The stock market was flying high in the 1990s and rose approximately 210% over the course of Bill Clinton’s two terms. The first term saw the S&P 500 rise 79%, while in the second term it gained 73%.

During George H. W. Bush’s single term in the White House, the large cap benchmark rose 51%.

Finally, the Ronald Reagan era resulted in the S&P 500 rising 118% in eight years, jumping 30% in the first four years and 67% in his second term.

So, thus far, Biden ranks toward the lower end of the middle of the pack, but there are still six months left, so the story is not yet written.

With the likelihood of interest rates cuts this year, some pundits suggest the S&P 500 could reach 6,000, or higher by the end of the year. However, it is a presidential election year, and an unusual one at that, so investors should expect volatility and uncertainty.