High but not too high CPI to fuel further USD selling – MUFG

Nearly every measure in global manufacturing is strongly signalling bottlenecks and inflation pressures, and hence the CPI data from the US today will be crucial for the markets. Economists at MUFG Bank expect high inflation data to trigger further USD selling.

See – US CPI Preview: Forecasts from eight major banks

There is increasing focus on the inflation outlook

“The UST 10yr bond yield has crept higher since the brief decline immediately following the NFP on Friday, which is an indication of the market concerns over the building bottlenecks in manufacturing and hence the fear of a big inflation number in the US today.” 

“In all likelihood, it will take a reading greater than the 0.3% MoM core CPI consensus to really get a move in UST bond yields. But equally, a weaker print is unlikely to prompt too much of a decline.” 

“We see limited prospect of a significant currency reaction to a 0.3% MoM gain at this stage.” 

“The evidence of economic strength and imminent rebound is evident in Europe, the UK and most other G10 countries and hence the continued perception of the Fed running a looser monetary stance for longer than in many other countries can continue for now to be the differentiating factor. A measure of the Fed’s continued success can be seen by the remarkable renewed decline in real yields. The US dollar will continue to struggle given that backdrop alone. A high inflation print matching consensus may well reinforce this and prompt modest USD selling today.”