Goldman Sachs now sees US unemployment rate peaking at 25% - Bloomberg

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

Goldman Sachs economists David Mericle and Ronnie Walker estimate that the US jobless rate will peak at 25% versus the previous forecast of 15%, according to Bloomberg.

The forecast for the peak jobless rate has been revised higher following last Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report, which showed a record contraction in job growth in April and a rise in the jobless rate to 14.7% - the highest since the Great Depression era.

Key quotes

More workers will lose their jobs and a larger share of them will be classiﬁed as unemployed.

The rate would then remain near 10% at year-end, near the highs of the last recession.

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

GBP/USD stays weak near 1.3250 on resurgent USD demand

GBP/USD stays weak near 1.3250 in European trading on Tuesday, reversing a part of the previous day's advance to a one-week high. The pair ditches a three-day winning streak, undermined by the USD/JPY upsurge-led broad US Dollar rebound. US jobs data in next in focus.

EUR/USD stays below 1.1400 after soft German inflation data

EUR/USD stays on the back foot and trades in negative territory below 1.1400 on Tuesday, looking to snap a three-day winning streak amid a firmer US Dollar. Softer-than-expected June inflation readings from Germany make it even more difficult for the Euro to stay resilient against the USD.

Gold rebounds after hitting fresh 2026-low, trades above $4,000

Gold (XAU/USD) builds on its intraday recovery from the lowest level since November 2025, touched below $3,950 earlier this Tuesday, and trades marginally higher on the day above $4,000. Any meaningful appreciation still seems elusive in the wake of a broadly firmer US Dollar. Against the backdrop of renewed Mideast tensions, mixed signals on US-Iran talks assist the USD and limit XAU/USD's upside.

Ripple defends critical support, Stellar extends recovery

Ripple (XRP) trades around the key $1.00 psychological level, consolidating as the token awaits its next directional catalyst. Stellar (XLM) extends its recovery above $0.178 after posting modest gains at the start of this week.

US JOLTS Job Openings expected to show strong labor demand, endorsing Fed rate hike bets

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for May on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. Job openings are expected to come in at 7.3 million in May.

Kevin Warsh isn't expected to say much in Sintra: That's exactly why markets will listen

Financial markets could find an important catalyst in the enchanting, fairytale-like landscape of Sintra this week. The ECB Forum will, as it does every year, gather the crème de la crème of central banks. The new boss at the Fed, who has clearly said that the Fed should stop explaining everything, will need to talk – and traders should listen.