Gold to shine as Fed shifts into low gear and king dollar tips over - TD Securities


"Following a very strong start, gold has had a disappointing year for the most part, as it printed red for 2018," note TD Securities analysts. 

Key quotes

"Although equity market weakness and a recent Fed shift toward a more dovish and pragmatic stance has provided a short covering boost, the same factors that have weighed on the yellow metal for much of the year will also serve as an impediment to prices breaking out above $1,300 in the early part of 2019. We expect choppy range-bound trading in the near-term, as the greenback remains relatively firm, Fed monetary policy continues to be ambiguous and China/EM economic and currency risks continue to manifest — a US-China trade deal will take time to negotiate and Chinese stimulus is unlikely to take hold until later in 2019.

"From our vantage point, much of the poor performance across the precious metals space has been sentiment and capital flow driven. This is a trend which is unlikely to be materially reversed in the near-term, now that US equity markets have caught a bid and data such as the December payrolls continue to beat expectations. But, as markets become convinced that the tightening cycle is done, a weaker USD and a materially slower US growth profile will once again raise equity correction risks in the latter half of 2019, prompting the yellow and white metals to jump higher again."

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD drops below 1.11 amid upbeat US data, trade concerns

EUR/USD is trading below 1.11 after robust US housing figures and solid consumer sentiment figures were published. Earlier, the common currency suffered from the concerns of new US tariffs on the EU.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD down 100 pips after UK retail sales badly disappoint, amid USD strength

GBP/USD has plunged below 1.3050 after UK retail sales badly disappointed with a fall of 0.6% in December, on top of downward revisions. Odds of a BOE cut have risen.

GBP/USD News

Crypto market hyperspace mode On

The secondary actors of the crypto-sphere awaken and rally hard. Leading coins battle with greater resistance at the gates of a full bullish market. The only risk is an over-shoot, but that sentiment remains neutral.

Read more

Gold looks to close week flat below $1560

The XAU/USD pair climbed to a fresh daily high of $1560 in the early trading hours of the American session but struggled to preserve its momentum.

Gold News

USD/JPY: Losing bullish momentum but retaining gains

Chinese encouraging data kept markets in risk-on mode at the beginning of the day. The US January Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is seen at 99.3, matching December figure. USD/JPY holding at the upper end of its weekly range could correct lower.

USD/JPY News

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures