Gold Price News and Forecast: XAU/USD looking for an excuse to go higher

FXStreet Team FXStreet

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD fails to scale 50-day SMA even as US inflation expectations rise

Gold, a proven store of value, struggles to gather upside traction despite the uptick in the US inflation expectations. The yellow metal is trading at $1,918 per ounce at press time, having faced rejection above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,923 early Thursday. Similarly, the bulls failed to keep gains above the key SMA on Wednesday.

The US 5-year, 5-year forward inflation swap rose to 2.20% on Wednesday, the highest level since the second quarter of 2019. While inflation expectations are hovering well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, the central bank is unlikely to raise rates anytime soon.

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price	1913.48
Today Daily Change	-11.02
Today Daily Change %	-0.57
Today daily open	1924.5

Trends
Daily SMA20	1898.06
Daily SMA50	1924.95
Daily SMA100	1877.32
Daily SMA200	1758.41

Levels
Previous Daily High	1931.54
Previous Daily Low	1906.22
Previous Weekly High	1933.3
Previous Weekly Low	1882.46
Previous Monthly High	1992.42
Previous Monthly Low	1848.82
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1921.87
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1915.89
Daily Pivot Point S1	1909.97
Daily Pivot Point S2	1895.43
Daily Pivot Point S3	1884.65
Daily Pivot Point R1	1935.29
Daily Pivot Point R2	1946.07
Daily Pivot Point R3	1960.61

Gold is looking for an excuse to go higher

And that excuse is the devaluation of the dollar. Gold is not immune to fundamental events. However, recently has been sideways for the most part of two months.

A theme revolving around Biden’s win is the dollar’s devaluation, with many banks calling a drop in the dollar if Biden is elected. Given the historical precedent of Gold rallying on dollar weakness, a Biden win may push the yellow metal higher. Furthermore, a sell-off in the equity markets on a Biden win may give Gold’s tailwinds as investors and traders switch to risk-off.

GBP/USD finds support but stays below 1.3400

GBP/USD found support near 1.3370 after starting the week on the back foot but lost its recovery momentum after testing 1.3400 on Monday. The pair's upside remains capped as investors await clarity regarding the conflict in the Middle East. Later in the day, comments from central bank officials will be watched closely by market participants.

EUR/USD holds above 1.1400 as focus remains on Middle East

EUR/USD holds steady above 1.1400 following the bearish action seen during the weekly opening. As the uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict keeps investors on edge, the pair's upside remains limited, while hawkish ECB expectations help the Euro stay resilient against its rivals. In the second half of the day, investors will pay close attention to comments from central bank officials.

Gold pares losses; keeps the red below $4,100 on hawkish Fed bets

Gold trims a part of its intraday losses during the first half of the European session, though it retains the negative bias for the second straight day and remains below the $4,100 mark. The US Dollar (USD) attracts some intraday sellers and supports the bullion. Any meaningful upside, however, still seems elusive amid a bearish fundamental backdrop.

Bitcoin retreats as Middle East conflict overshadows ETF inflows

Bitcoin struggles to hold above $64,000 after a modest recovery the previous week. Risk sentiment dampens as tensions in the Middle East escalated after the US launched fresh strikes on Iran on Sunday, weighing on BTC. Meanwhile, improving institutional demand, with spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds ending an eight-week streak of net outflows, has provided only limited support amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

The US won't default on $39 trillion debt: Why financial repression is coming and Gold is the only hedge

As the US national debt surges past $39 trillion, policymakers face an unsustainable economic trajectory that threatens the global financial system. With a formal default out of the question and fiscal austerity politically unfeasible, the US government is increasingly likely to rely on financial repression, artificially keeping interest rates below inflation to erode the real value of its debt.

Five sessions, one round trip: Why the whipsaw is exactly what Warsh ordered

Markets opened July with a December hike as the base case and spent five trading sessions unlearning and relearning it. A 57K payrolls print bled the tightening bets out of the strip; a re-shut Strait of Hormuz is pushing them back in. Wednesday's minutes from the June FOMC meeting landed mid-round-trip, describing a world that had already stopped existing.