Gold price meets gigantic offers despite US Retail Sales misses estimates
- Gold price has sensed immense selling pressure despite the US Retail Sales data have failed to match expectations
- Further policy tightening by the Fed is widely anticipated as the United States inflation needs to fall near 2%.
- US Yellen says the US economy will dodge a recession.
Gold price (XAU/USD) has faced stiff resistance near the intraday high of $1,970.00 on Tuesday. The precious metal has sensed selling pressure despite US Retail Sales for June having landed below expectations. Monthly economic data has expanded by 0.2% while investors were anticipating an expansion of 0.5%. Earlier, the yellow metal picked strength as discussions about introducing a novel gold-backed currency by the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have improved its appeal. In addition to that, the broader softening of inflationary pressures in the United States economy has ramped up demand for Gold.
The United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned out softer -than- expected and labor market conditions eased in June. There is no denying the fact that heated inflationary pressures have cooled down, while further policy-tightening from the Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely anticipated to help return inflation steadily below the 2% target.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold faces pressure despite weak US Retail Sales
- Gold price extends recovery above $1,960.00 as the US Dollar Index resumes its downside journey after failing to sustain above the psychological resistance of 100.00.
- Rising odds of only one more interest-rate hike from the Federal Reserve have propelled strength in Gold.
- Meanwhile, a small interest rate hike of 25 basis points (bps) by the Fed in its July monetary policy meeting is expected, according to bets at the CME Group Fedwatch tool.
- The appeal for the US Dollar Index has faded as the BRICS alliance is in discussions about the introduction of a new gold-backed currency. The motive behind launching a new currency seems to be de-dollarization.
- The US Dollar Index has tested its fresh annual support of 99.60. More downside in the safe-haven asset seems hopeful as United States inflation has softened significantly.
- The yields offered on 10-year US Treasury bonds have dropped to near 3.77%.
- Consistently declining gasoline prices and demand for second-hand automobiles have eased red-hot inflationary pressures.
- Despite inflation has softened significantly, risks of a recession are still elevated as current price growth is still far from the desired rate of 2%.
- While investors are anticipating that the US economy will enter into a recession, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has a different viewpoint. Yellen said on Monday that the economy is making good progress in bringing inflation down and she doesn’t expect a recession, Bloomberg report.
- Last week, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Austan Goolsbee said “Inflation is progressively declining but is still higher from where the Fed wants it to be.” Goolsbee reiterated that central bank policymakers are on a "golden path" to contain inflation without pushing the economy into a recession.
- Monthly US Retail Sales have posted an expansion of 0.2% vs. the consensus of 0.5% and the former release of 0.3%. Also, economic data excluding automobiles has landed at 0.2% against expectations and the prior release of 0.3%.
- A decline in demand from households could allow Fed Chair Jerome Powell to raise interest rates only one more time by the year-end.
Technical Analysis: Gold senses pressure around $1,970
Gold price is forming a bullish Cup and Holder pattern whose breakout results in a reversal move. The chart pattern trades back and forth around $1,960.00. The release of the US Retail Sales data might trigger a power-pack action.
Gold price is expected to attract fresh bids after a confident break above the crucial resistance level at $1,960.00. The upside bias could fade if the Gold price fails to maintain the auction above the $1,940.00 support.
Fed FAQs
What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar?
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings?
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD?
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar?
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
