Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD unlikely to extend its recovery – Commerzbank

The US Dollar is finding some near-term demand after the release of the US Q3 GDP. According to the report, the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.3% in the three months to September, well above the 3.3% forecast by market analysts.

GBP/USD retreats from session highs and trades slightly below 1.3500 in the second half of the day on Tuesday. The US Dollar stages a rebound following the better-than-expected Q3 growth data, limiting the pair's upside ahead of the Christmas break.

Gold sustains the record-setting rally above $4,500 in the Asian session on Wednesday. The Israel-Iran conflict and the escalating US-Venezuela tensions boost safe-haven flows into Gold. Furthermore, US Q3 GDP data fails to lift the US Dollar amid growing bets for two Fed rate cuts in 2026, underpinning the non-yielding bullion. 

The crypto market capitalisation fell by 1.4% to $2.97T, falling below the $3T mark once again. The market was unable to repeat the robust rebound from the local bottom, as it did after 23 November and 2 December, indicating increased pressure from sellers.

2026 may be less about a neat “base case” and more about a regime shift—the market can reprice what matters most (growth, inflation, fiscal, geopolitics, concentration). The biggest trap is false comfort: the same trades can look defensive… right up until they become crowded.

Dogecoin extends its decline as risk-off sentiment dominates across the crypto market. DOGE’s derivatives market remains weak amid suppressed futures Open Interest and perpetual funding rate.