Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD unlikely to break out in any particular direction – Commerzbank

Gold traders are facing a number of tense days – no fewer than two US data heavyweights are set to be published that are relevant to the monetary policy outlook and by extension to Gold. Economists at Commerzbank analyze XAU/USD outlook. 

Things could become volatile for Gold next week

Today it’s the turn of the US labour market report, with inflation data to follow next week. The surprisingly buoyant US GDP growth in the second quarter had recently fuelled hopes that the US economy might avoid sliding into recession despite the significantly higher interest rates. If today’s labour market data should confirm this picture, the Gold price could find itself heading south initially. This is because a recession would make interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which would benefit Gold, much more likely. 

By contrast, next week’s inflation data are more likely to support the view that the Fed ended its rate hike cycle in July, which in turn would leave the door open to an interest rate turnaround. 

All in all, things could become volatile for Gold next week, though any lasting break-out to the upside or the downside does not seem probable.