Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to offset Fed rate hikes by virtue of safe-haven demand – ANZ

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Gold’s geopolitical risk premium eased amid peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. A stronger USD and the prospects of a more aggressive rate hike cycle also weighed on sentiment. Strategists at ANZ expect the yellow metal to offset prospects of aggressive tightening thanks to safe-haven demand amid prolonged Ukraine conflict.

Gold investment demand is rebounding

“The US Federal Reserve raised rates by 25bps at its meeting last week. Its dot plot showed the median for the next two years is exceeding long-term projections. While an aggressive rate hike cycle remains a key headwind, this should be offset by strong safe-haven demand amid the uncertainty created by the ongoing war in Ukraine.”

“Investment demand has seen strong inflows since February, with ETF net flows rising to 202t year-to-date. This follows a net liquidation of 300t in 2021. Investors have also added net-long positions of 233t of gold in futures.”

“Physical gold demand in India and China could be impacted by higher gold prices and the prospects of slower economic growth. Deteriorating gold spot premium in India and China suggests weakening physical offtake.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD extends losses toward 1.1600 ahead of EU inflation data

EUR/USD extends the decline toward 1.1600 in the European session on Tuesday. The pair remains under pressure as surging energy prices amid the US-Iran war have increased the risks of higher inflation for the Old Continent. The focus is now on the Eurozone preliminary inflation reading for February.

GBP/USD drops back toward three-month lows below 1.3350

GBP/USD is back in the red, accelerating its downside toward the three-month lows of 1.3315 in European trading on Tuesday. The ongoing escalation in the Iran war, combined with rising Oil prices, weighs negatively on the higher-yielding Pound Sterling as the US Dollar preserves the previous upside.

Gold weakens below $5,300 as sustained USD buying counter Middle East tensions

Gold attracts some intraday selling and falls around $100 from the daily top, around the $5,380 area. The US Dollar climbs to a fresh high since January 20 and turns out to be a key factor exerting downward pressure on the commodity. However, concerns about a broader regional conflict in the Middle East continue to weigh on investors' sentiment and underpin demand for the traditional safe-haven bullion.

Stellar risks deeper losses as derivatives metrics turn negative

Stellar is trading red below $0.16 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after a slight recovery the previous day. Weakening derivatives data caps the recovery, while an unfavorable technical outlook projects a deeper correction for the XLM token in the upcoming days.

The market is not panicking it is repricing the probability distribution of Oil and time

At the end of the day, markets do not trade morality or geopolitics. They trade transmission channels. And the only channel that truly matters in this maelstrom runs through the price of energy and the time value of money.

Hyperliquid Price Forecast: HYPE rises on commodities demand amid US-Iran war

Hyperliquid (HYPE) steadies above $33 at press time on Tuesday, marking its fourth consecutive day of recovery in a broadly volatile market due to the ongoing US-Israel strikes on Iran.