Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to edge lower towards $1,500 by end-2022 – ABN Amro

Gold prices have declined by 6.6% so far this year. Strategists at ABN Amro think that the gold price outlook remains negative. Subsequently, their end 2022 forecast is $1,500 per ounce and end-2023 at $1,300 per ounce.

A lower gold price in 2022

“We continue to expect lower gold prices in 2022 and 2023. Our forecast for the end of 2022 stands at $1,500 per ounce and end-2023 at $1,300 per ounce.”

“Monetary policy will tighten globally going forward. We expect the Fed to start hiking in mid-2022. Tighter monetary policy is in general negative for gold, also because yields on government bonds have a tendency to rise.”

“We expect US 2y real yields to pick up. There are two dynamics at play here. First, we expect the 2yr US Treasury yield to rise a bit more than what markets are now expecting. Moreover, we think that inflationary pressures will ease. This results in higher 2y US real yields and that will weigh on gold prices going forward.”

“We expect the US dollar to rally further, especially versus currencies where central banks start the tightening process later. A higher US dollar is generally negative for gold.”

See – Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD unlikely to have a good 2022 – Deutsche Bank