Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD prepares for a fresh downside to near $1,700 as US NFP hogs limelight

Gold price (XAU/USD) is displaying a less-confident pullback move after printing a fresh monthly low of $1,723.44 in the Tokyo session. The precious metal is expected to remain in a negative trajectory for a prolonged period as the Federal Reserve (Fed) chose price stability over growth at Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday.

Inflationary pressures displayed signs of evidence that stated a limited luxury to the Fed to slow down the pace of hiking interest rates in August. While US economic activities displayed a meaningful slowdown due to lower liquidity in the economy. Considering the dual situation, market veterans were expecting that the Fed will trim the velocity of hiking interest rates to spur economic activities. However, the Fed chose to bring price stability as their foremost priority.

Going forward, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data will be of utmost importance. The economic data is expected to land at 290k, lower than the prior release of 528k. Investors should not consider the decline in job creation as a major issue. The US economy is operating at full-employment levels for around six months, therefore, more room for job creation has been trimmed significantly.

Gold technical analysis

On an hourly scale, the gold prices have slipped below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (placed from July 21 low at $1,680.91 to August 10 high at $1,807.93) at $1,729.35. Declining 20-and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $1,738.08 and $1,745.84 adds to the downside filters. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which signals more weakness ahead.

Gold four-hour chart