Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD posts modest gains above the mid-$2,100s amid geopolitical tension risks

Gold price (XAU/USD) holds above the mid-$2,100s during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The recovery of the yellow metal is bolstered by the higher possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could start cutting rates later this year. Traders await the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers for the fourth quarter (Q4) for fresh impetus, which is estimated to remain steady at 3.2%. Gold price currently trades around $2,168, gaining 0.15% on the day. 

Last week, the Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting at its 5.25% to 5.50% range after its March meeting. The Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that the central bank was on course for three interest rate cuts in 2024, which fuel more investor demand for the precious metal and lift the gold price. Investors have priced in a 72% odds that the Fed will start cutting rates in the June meeting, up from 65% before the rate decision, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 

Furthermore, the escalating geopolitical tension in Ukraine might boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the gold price. On Sunday, an underground gas storage facility in Ukraine was attacked in the latest round of Russian missile attacks on power facilities. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said attempts to restore power supply were underway in several locations, with the most challenging situation in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, per Reuters. 

Looking ahead, gold traders will closely watch the US GDP growth numbers Annualized for Q4. If the report shows stronger-than-expected data, this could provide some support to the Greenback and weigh on the US Dollar-denominated Gold. On Friday, the markets will be closed for Good Friday.