Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD lacks any firm intraday direction, flat-lines around $1,950 area

Gold price struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday uptick and oscillates in a narrow trading band through the first half of the Asian session on Tuesday. The XAU/USD currently trades around the $1,950 level, nearly unchanged for the day, and remains well within a familiar trading range held over the past month or so.

Federal Reserve’s uncertain rate-hike path leads to range-bound price action

The uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-hike path is holding back traders from placing aggressive directional bets around the Gold price. It is worth recalling that the Fed signalled last week that borrowing costs may still need to rise by as much as 50 basis points (bps) by the end of this year. That said, the incoming softer macro data from the United States (US) raised questions over how much headroom the Fed has to keep raising rates. Hence, the focus will remain glued to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's two-day congressional testimony, which will be scrutinized for fresh clues about the US central bank's policy outlook and help determine the near-term trajectory for the XAU/USD.

Hawkish major central banks continue to weigh on Gold price

In the meantime, the markets have been pricing in the possibility of another 25 bps lift-off in July as inflation in the US is still trending well above the central bank’s 2% annual target. This, along with a more hawkish outlook by other major central banks, caps the upside for the non-yielding Gold price. In fact, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) delivered a surprise 25 bps rate hike earlier this month. Moreover, the European Central Bank (ECB) last week lifted rates to the highest level in 22 years and projected further tightening to bring down inflation. The Bank of England (BoE) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) are also expected to hike interest rates by 25 bps later this week.

Modest US Dollar uptick contributes to capping the XAU/USD

Apart from this, a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, bolstered by a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, suggests that the path of least resistance for Gold price is to the downside. That said, worries about a global economic downturn continue to weigh on investors' sentiment, which is evident from a generally weaker tone around the equity markets and could lend some support to the safe-haven XAU/USD. This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before traders start positioning for the resumption of the recent sharp retracement slide from the all-time high, around the $2,075-$2,080 region touched in May.

Gold price technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently around the $1,942 area, is likely to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $1,932 region and the $1,925-$1,924 zone or the monthly swing low. Some follow-through selling will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the $1,900 round figure. The downward trajectory could get extended further towards the $1,876-$1,875 horizontal support before the XAU/USD eventually drops to the very important 200-day SMA, currently around the $1,839 region.

On the flip side, the $1,962-$1,964 region is likely to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the $1,970-$1,972 supply zone. This is followed by the $1,983-$1,985 barrier, above which a bout of a short-covering should allow the Gold price to reclaim the $2,000 psychological mark and climb further towards the next relevant barrier near the $2,010-$2,012 region.

Key levels to watch