Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds positive ground above $3,100, all eyes on US NFP data

Gold price rebounds to around $3,115 in Thursday's late American session.
The heightened economic uncertainty supports the safe-haven demand, supporting the Gold price.
Traders await the US March employment data, which is due later on Friday.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

Gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some lost ground to near $3,115 during the late American session on Thursday after facing some profit-taking in the previous session. Escalating concerns over a global trade war and ongoing geopolitical risks boost the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset.

The precious metal trims losses after falling over 2% from an all-time high, as a broader market selloff triggered by US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs policy infected Gold traders. Traders attributed gold’s dip to profit-taking and investors selling some of their bullion holdings to cover losses in other asset classes.

However, the downside for the yellow metal might be capped amid the fears that Trump's tariffs could dampen economic growth. The heightened uncertainty could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold price. "As the market sold-off on the deleveraging pressures, the market was looking for buying opportunities on the dip," said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

All eyes will be on the US March employment data on Friday, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings. In case of the stronger-than-expected outcome, this could lift the Greenback and cap the upside for the USD-denominated commodity price. Additionally, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, Michael Barr, and Christopher Waller are set to speak later on the same day.

Gold FAQs

Why do people invest in Gold?

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Who buys the most Gold?

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

How is Gold correlated with other assets?

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

What does the price of Gold depend on?

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

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