Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds below $3,350 as trade war eases
- Gold price edges lower to $3,335 in Monday’s Asian session.
- Trump set a July 9 deadline for a trade deal with the European Union.
- Renewed inflation concerns and recession fears might help limit the Gold’s losses.
The Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers to near $3,335 during the early Asian session on Monday. The de-escalation of the trade war provides some support to the yellow metal. The FOMC Minute will be the highlight later on Wednesday.
On Sunday, US President Donald Trump said that he agreed to an extension on the tariff deadline on the European Union (EU) until July 9, rescinding his threat of a 50% tariff from June 1. The easing fears of a global trade war drag the precious metal lower.
However, traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Japan trade deals and other major economies' trade deals for fresh impetus. Any signs of escalating trade tensions could boost the safe-haven flows, benefitting the precious metal.
Renewed inflation concerns and a US credit rating downgrade boost could underpin the Gold price. Moody’s downgraded the US long-held ‘Aaa’ credit rating to ‘Aa1.’ The downgrade added fuel to a weakening US Dollar (USD) and lifted the USD-denominated Gold price.
Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, expects the rise in gold prices to continue into the month of June 2025. Trivedi emphasized key drivers like the US credit downgrade, continued Chinese central bank gold purchases, and trade tensions.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
