Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds below $3,250 on improved risk sentiment

Gold price edges lower to $3,245 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
Improved risk appetite after the US and China slash tariff rates weighs on the Gold price.
Escalating tensions and uncertainty might help limit the Gold’s losses.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in negative territory around $3,245 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. Improved risk appetite in the financial markets due to a tariff deal between the United States (US) and China weighs on the yellow metal, a safe-haven asset. Traders will focus on the Fedspeak later on Wednesday.

The US and China, the world’s two largest economies, agreed to reduce tariffs on each other after two days of negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland. The US lowered tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% from 145%, while China cut tariffs on US imports to 10% from 125%. These positive developments boost market sentiment and undermine the precious metal.

Additionally, easing tensions between India and Pakistan also weighed on the Gold price. The ceasefire remained intact in Jammu and Kashmir and across border towns overnight, following India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi's stern message to terrorists and Pakistan. Modi said on Monday that India will not tolerate any "nuclear blackmail.” He added that operations against Pakistan have only been paused, and the future will depend on their behavior.

"Gold and silver showed a heavy selloff at the start of the new week amid a trade deal between the US and China in Switzerland. The dollar index and the US bond yields jumped after the announcement of trade deals. The Indo-Pak ceasefire over the weekend also eases safe-haven buying for precious metals," Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research observed.

Nonetheless, any signs of escalation between India and Pakistan, along with the economic uncertainty triggered by US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold price.

Gold FAQs

Why do people invest in Gold?

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Who buys the most Gold?

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

How is Gold correlated with other assets?

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

What does the price of Gold depend on?

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

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