|

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD hits five-month highs near $3,470 on renewed upside

  • Gold price bounces back toward record highs in Monday’s Asian session. 
  • Precious metal reverses profit-taking retreat amid a renewed US Dollar selling.
  • Rising Fed rate cut expectations aid Gold’s rebound. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) has picked up fresh bids, resuming its uptrend in the Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal shrugs off its profit-taking pullback and rebounds to a fresh five-month high near $3,470 on increased dovish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations.

The US inflation data reinforced expectations that the Fed could cut interest rates this month.

Markets weigh in fresh US trade uncertainty after a US court on Friday ruled US President Donald Trump's global tariffs as largely illegal.

A slew of US economic data last week, including US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and US Initial Jobless Claims reports, underpinned the US Dollar (USD) and weighed on the USD-denominated commodity price. The US GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.3% in Q2, compared to the initial estimate of 3.0%, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed Thursday. This figure came in better than the estimation of 3.1%.

Nonetheless, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measurement, stayed higher than the central bank's target in July, but it didn't dash traders' hopes for a rate cut. The expectation of Fed rate cuts continues to support the yellow metal, as lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Gold. 

Traders are now pricing in nearly an 89% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed at the September policy meeting, up from 85% odds before the US PCE data, according to the CME FedWatch tool. "We have expectations of a Fed rate cut, or potentially two, throughout this year, (which is) generally supportive for commodity prices across the board, including gold and silver," said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.05%-0.17%0.09%0.03%0.08%-0.24%0.09%
EUR0.05%-0.12%0.07%0.09%0.13%-0.19%0.15%
GBP0.17%0.12%0.08%0.21%0.25%-0.07%0.32%
JPY-0.09%-0.07%-0.08%0.02%0.01%-0.29%0.04%
CAD-0.03%-0.09%-0.21%-0.02%0.06%-0.28%0.11%
AUD-0.08%-0.13%-0.25%-0.01%-0.06%-0.32%0.06%
NZD0.24%0.19%0.07%0.29%0.28%0.32%0.39%
CHF-0.09%-0.15%-0.32%-0.04%-0.11%-0.06%-0.39%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

More from Lallalit Srijandorn
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD stays below 1.3400 after soft UK CPI data

GBP/USD struggles to gain traction and stays below 1.3400 in the second half of the day on Wednesday. The UK annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation cooled to 2.6% in June against the market forecast of 2.7%, making it difficult for the British Pound gather recovery momentum. Meanwhile, investors keep a close eye on headlines coming out of the Middle East.

EUR/USD stabilizes near 1.1400 as markets focus on geopolitics

EUR/USD trades in a narrow channel at around 1.1400 on Wednesday. In the absence of high-impact data releases, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East caps the pair's upside. On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce monetary policy decisions.

Gold extends rally as Middle East concerns intensify

Gold extends gains for the fourth consecutive day, standing comfortably above $4,100, unfazed by the risk-off market amid rising tensions in Iran and higher Oil prices. The pair has rallied nearly 2.5% so far this week and is on track for its best weekly performance in more than three months.

XRP consolidates as inflows and volume climb
Ripple (XRP) retains a slightly bullish outlook on Wednesday despite logging a minor correction from the supply range near $1.15. The remittance token is down 0.5% on the day, reflecting a broader cryptocurrency market drawdown, primarily driven by persistent geopolitical tensions between the United States (US) and Iran in the Middle East.
US – Fed preview: A divided hold
The first month after Kevin Warsh's debut at the FOMC's June meeting has brought mixed signals on the inflation front. On one hand, the re-escalation of the war in Iran has lifted energy prices higher again. Yet on the other hand, Warsh's hawkish comments have already lifted real rates, supported broad USD and tightened financial conditions while realized inflation surprised to the downside in June.
US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?
The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.