Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD consolidates gains and threatens the 20-day SMA

The XAU/USD sees a downward shift to around the $2030 level, highlighting a 0.55% decline.
US yields show weakness, which may limit the downside for the metal.
Markets are bracing for Friday's inflation data, which is likely to set the pace of the price dynamics for the short term.

Patricio Martín FXStreet

In Wednesday's trading session, the XAU/USD Gold spot price witnessed a strong downward trend, currently trading at approximately $2,030. Buyers seem to be taking a step back to consolidate gains as the price stands at highs since May.

Market participants continue to be on edge as they await the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures from November, much favored by the Federal Reserve as a key indicator of inflation, due on Friday. The outcome may have an impact on the metals price as it could confirm the markets bet on sooner rate cuts by the Fed in 2024.

Meanwhile, due to the Fed’s dovish shifts, US yields are weak, providing a cushion to the yellow metal as falling US Treasury bond yields tend to ease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals. The 2-year rate is hovering at 4.40%, while the 5 and 10-year yields are at 3.85% and 3.84% (low since July) respectively.

XAU/USD levels to watch

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI), despite its negative slope, remains in positive territory while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram lays out red bars which reaffirm an underlying buying pressure; however, their flat nature implies a pause in momentum.

Zooming out, the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) further implicate a bullish stance. Specifically, the pair is notably above the 20,100 and 200-day SMA, suggesting that the buyers still dominate the larger time frames.

Support Levels: $2,020 (20-day SMA), $2,000, $1,980.
Resistance Levels: $2,040, $2,050, $2,070.

XAU/USD daily chart

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price	2031.2
Today Daily Change	-9.12
Today Daily Change %	-0.45
Today daily open	2040.32

Trends
Daily SMA20	2020.12
Daily SMA50	1985.55
Daily SMA100	1944.82
Daily SMA200	1956.61

Levels
Previous Daily High	2047.01
Previous Daily Low	2021.78
Previous Weekly High	2047.93
Previous Weekly Low	1973.13
Previous Monthly High	2052.03
Previous Monthly Low	1931.67
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	2037.37
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	2031.42
Daily Pivot Point S1	2025.73
Daily Pivot Point S2	2011.14
Daily Pivot Point S3	2000.5
Daily Pivot Point R1	2050.96
Daily Pivot Point R2	2061.6
Daily Pivot Point R3	2076.19

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.