Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bulls flirt with $1,930 resistance, focus remains on FOMC


  • A combination of factors lifts the Gold price higher for the third successive day on Monday.
  • A softer risk tone benefits the safe-haven XAU/USD amid a modest US Dollar downtick.
  • Traders look to this week's key data/central bank event risks for a fresh directional impetus.

Gold price attracts some buying for the third successive day on Monday and steadily climbs back closer to the $1,930 supply zone during the Asian session. The XAU/USD might now be looking to build on its recent goodish rebound from the $1,900 round figure, or over a three-week low touched last Thursday and draws support from a generally weaker tone around the Asian equity markets.

Investors remain concerned about the worsening economic conditions in China and the fears were further fueled by the latest developments surrounding China Evergrande Group. The embattled developer delayed a decision to restructure its debt and some of its employees from the wealth management unit were detained in Shenzhen. This comes on the back of China's conservative approach to introduce more stimulus measures and takes its toll on the global risk sentiment, which, in turn, is seen driving some haven flows towards the Gold price.

Apart from this, a mildly softer tone surrounding the US Dollar (USD) is seen as another factor lending support to the XAU/USD. The downside for the USD, meanwhile, remains cushioned as traders seem reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of the crucial two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting starting on Tuesday. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely anticipated to leave interest rates unchanged, though the markets are still pricing in the possibility of one more 25 basis points (bps) lift-off in November or December.

The outlook remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which act as a tailwind for the USD and might keep a lid on any further gains for the non-yielding Gold price. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bets and prefer to wait for fresh cues about the Fed's future rate-hike path. Hence, the focus will be on the accompanying monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at the post-meeting press conference. This will influence the USD and provide a fresh directional impetus to the US Dollar-denominated commodity.

Investors this week will also confront a string of major central bank rate decisions – including the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday, followed by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Friday. Apart from this, the latest consumer inflation figures from Canada and the United Kingdom (UK) on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, will be looked upon for some meaningful trading opportunities around the Gold price.

Technical levels to watch

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price 1928.24
Today Daily Change 4.24
Today Daily Change % 0.22
Today daily open 1924
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1920.94
Daily SMA50 1931.83
Daily SMA100 1946.91
Daily SMA200 1922.21
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1930.47
Previous Daily Low 1909.83
Previous Weekly High 1930.77
Previous Weekly Low 1901.07
Previous Monthly High 1966.08
Previous Monthly Low 1884.85
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1922.59
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1917.71
Daily Pivot Point S1 1912.4
Daily Pivot Point S2 1900.79
Daily Pivot Point S3 1891.76
Daily Pivot Point R1 1933.04
Daily Pivot Point R2 1942.07
Daily Pivot Point R3 1953.68

 

 

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