Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bulls eye $1,930 on economic slowdown, US-China jitters amid US holiday

Gold Price (XAU/USD) stays on the front foot for the fourth consecutive day despite lacking upside momentum around $1,923 heading into Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the XAU/USD portrays the market’s inaction amid the US holidays and a light calendar elsewhere.

However, concerns about the global economic slowdown and the US-China ties help the traders to remain active. Also favoring the market momentum was the recent inaction by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as defied the broad consensus of announcing a third consecutive 25 basis points rate hike.

The inversion between the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields jumped to a fresh high since 1981 and renewed recession woes. “The yield curve briefly inverted to 42-year lows Monday as investors increasingly expect the Fed to raise its benchmark borrowing rates to keep inflation in check,” said Reuters after the US two-year Treasury bond yields dropped to 4.85% while the 10-year counterpart fell to 3.78%. It’s worth noting that both these benchmark yields ended Monday’s trading around 4.93% and 3.86% respectively.

Elsewhere, anxiety surrounding the US-China ties escalates and provides a tailwind to the Gold Price as US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in Beijing. Earlier in the day, US Treasury Department said, per Reuters, “Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen had a 'frank and productive' discussion today with China's Ambassador.” The news also mentioned that US Treasury Secretary Yellen raised issues of concern while also conveying the importance of the two countries working together.

On the same line are headlines from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) stating, “The Biden administration is preparing to restrict Chinese companies’ access to U.S. cloud-computing services, according to people familiar with the situation, in a move that could further strain relations between the world’s economic superpowers.”

It’s worth observing that the downbeat US data fails to tame the hawkish Fed bets and challenge the Gold buyers despite the sluggish markets. On Monday, US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June dropped to the lowest level in three years, as well as stayed below the 50.0 level for the seventh consecutive month, as it marked a 46.0 figure versus 47.2 expected and 46.9 prior. Further, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June confirmed 46.3 figure, the lowest in five months, whereas the Construction Spending improved 0.9% MoM for May, versus 0.5% expected and 0.4% previous readouts.

While portraying the mood, S&P500 Futures retreated even as Wall Street managed to post minor gains.

Looking forward, the risk catalysts for clear directions amid the US holiday and light calendar elsewhere.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Despite failing to cross a fortnight-old descending resistance line, near $1,930 at the latest, the Gold Price remains well above the $1,917 support confluence comprising the 200-Hour Moving Average (HMA) and a four-day-old rising support line, which in turn keeps the XAU/USD bulls hopeful of poking the stated resistance line for one more time.

It should be observed that the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the quote’s weakness between June 16 and 29, adds strength to the $1,930 resistance comprising the previously mentioned falling trend line.

Following that, a quick jump towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, also known as the golden Fibonacci ratio, near $1,940, can’t be ruled out.

However, a convergence of the 100-DMA and a downward-sloping resistance line from early June on the daily chart, around $1,945, appears a tough nut to crack for the Gold buyers afterward.

Meanwhile, a downside break of the $1,917 support confluence will need validation from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of around $1,910 before directing the Gold bears toward the previous monthly low, also the lowest level since March, around $1,893.

Gold Price: Hourly chart

Trend: Limited upside expected