Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD appears ‘sell the bounce’, key US data eyed – Confluence Detector

Gold price resumes decline, as risk-aversion revives the US dollar’s haven demand.
Gold traders closely watch the action in US yields, Ukraine news ahead of US data.
Four scenarios for big moves in precious metals markets.

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Despite Wednesday’s rebound, gold price remains exposed to downside risks amid hopes for diplomacy on the Ukraine crisis while Russia continues its hostilities on the ground. Meanwhile, the price action in the US Treasury yields will continue to have a significant impact on the non-yielding gold price, in the face of recession risks and soaring inflation. Gold price now awaits the US PCE inflation and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls for fresh insights on the Fed’s next interest rates move. XAU/USD is set to end the quarter as well as the month with a gain of 5.6% and 1% respectively.

Read: Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Three reasons for a downside surprise, triggering dollar buy opportunity

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluences Detector shows that gold price is challenging bids at $1,924, which is the convergence of the SMA10 four-hour, Fibonacci 61.8% one-day and pivot point one-week S1.

The next bearish target is envisioned at $1,920, the pivot point one-day S1. Further south, the bears will test the bullish commitments at the previous day’s low of $1,916.

Should the selling pressure intensify, a fresh drop towards the previous week’s low of $1,911 will be on the cards.

Alternatively, gold bulls need to crack a dense cluster of healthy resistance levels around $1,932, where the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week, Fibonacci 23.6% one-month and SMA200 four-hour intersect.

Acceptance above the latter will call for a retest of the previous high four-hour and SMA10 one-day at $1,935.

The previous day’s high of $1,939 will be next on the bulls’ radars, as they remain poised for the additional upside towards the Fibonacci 38.2% one-week at $1,945.

Here is how it looks on the tool

About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

AUD/USD jumps to 0.7050, fresh one-month top after hot Australian CPI

AUD/USD attracts buyers for the second straight day on Wednesday, rising to a fresh high since September 23 during the Asian session. A hot Australian CPI print reaffirmed bets for an imminent RBA rate hike in November and boosted the Australian Dollar. Meanwhile, the US Dollar pauses after a three-day rally to a near two-week high ahead of the crucial FOMC rate decision, lending additional support to the currency pair.

USD/JPY sticks to modest gains above 157.50 as traders await Fed, BoJ meetings

USD/JPY attracts buyers for the third straight day, recovering further from a one-month low ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision and the BoJ policy update on Friday. Meanwhile, expectations that the BoJ may hold off on aggressive rate hikes weigh on the Japanese Yen, and the US Dollar advances to a nearly two-week high, supporting the currency pair.

Gold rises above $4,050 ahead of Fed rate decision

Gold price jumps to around $4,065 during the early Asian session on Wednesday, bolstered by lower oil prices. Traders await the Federal Reserve's policy meeting later on Wednesday for signals on ‌the future path of US interest rates.

Ethereum ETFs near record monthly outflows as ETH tests $2,310

Ethereum (ETH) held steady on Tuesday, consolidating at $2,340, just above $2,300 after last week’s decline. Three measures sit within about $18 of each other: ETH’s realized price at $2,310, the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,315, and the $2,328 average cost basis of wallets holding 1K-10K ETH.

FOMC outlook: Why keeping rates unchanged might not be enough

Tomorrow's FOMC meeting could be quite interesting, even if the Federal Reserve decides to leave interest rates unchanged. According to the latest market expectations, there is currently a 92.8% probability that rates will remain at 3.75–4.00%, while the probability of another 25 basis point increase stands at just 7.2%.

Anthropic pledged $270 billion to Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Here's who actually gets paid

Anthropic owes Amazon, Google, and Microsoft at least $269.4 billion for computing power, even if it uses less. All three sell its models and handle its billing, and Amazon and Google own stakes and lend it money, so they get paid regardless of how the IPO goes. The Dario Amodei-led Anthropic filed its initial public offering (IPO) on Monday, seeking a listing on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.