|

Gold Price Forecast: Focus is back on $1,850 and $1,835 for XAU/USD bears – Confluence Detector

  • Gold Price knocked down by the US dollar resurgence on recession fears.
  • Bond massacre triggered US yields rally, adding to the weight on XAU/USD.
  • Gold markets remain positioned for the next leg lower amid a dramatic week.

Gold Price is licking its wounds after failing another attempt to find a foothold above the $1,900 mark. The less hawkish Fed-led dollar sell-off turned out to be temporary, as recession fears hit the market after the BOE’s warning and triggered massive risk-off flows into the safe-haven greenback. ‘Sell everything’ mode returned, as bond markets tumbled alongside equities. Amid uncertain economic times, in the face of the Ukraine crisis and China’s covid lockdowns, the king dollar will remain the go-to asset at the expense of gold price.

Also read: US April Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Analyzing gold's reaction to NFP surprises

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluences Detector shows that Gold Price is attempting a minor bounce, looking to recapture the critical resistance at $1,874, which is the intersection of the previous day’s, month’s and week’s low.

The SMA5 one-day at $1,878 will be probed if gold bulls flex their muscles on the road to recovery.

Further up, gold buyers would aim for the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day at $1,881, above which a fresh upswing towards $1,887 will be in the offing. That level is the confluence of the SMA50 four-hour, Fibonacci 38.2% one-day and Fibonacci 23.6% one-week.

Alternatively, the immediate support is seen at the pivot point one-week S1 at $1,869. The next downside target is envisioned at the pivot point one-day S1 at $1,863.

A sharp sell-off on a sustained breach of the latter cannot be ruled out towards the $1,850 demand area, where the pivot point one-month S1 coincides with the Bollinger Band one-day Lower.

The straw that will break gold bulls’ neck is pegged at $1,835, the SMA200 one-day.

Here is how it looks on the tool

 
fxsoriginal

About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

More from Dhwani Mehta
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD holds above 0.6950 as bullish USD caps gains

AUD/USD edges lower during the Asian session on Tuesday, stalling a two-day recovery move from a two-month low, touched last week. An extended rout in the fixed income market keeps US bond yields elevated near multi-year highs. This, along with geopolitical uncertainties, helps the US Dollar retain its bullish tone despite receding October Fed hike bets. However, expectations for another RBA rate hike this month could act as a tailwind for the Aussie.

USD/JPY rises back above 158.00 despite hawkish BoJ outlook

USD/JPY rises back above 158.00 in the early European morning on Tuesday. The pair strengthens as the Japanese Yen fails to find any inspiration from hawkish BoJ expectations and looming intervention risks. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty and elevated US bond yields keep the US Dollar near its YTD high despite receding October Fed hike bets. This, in turn, helps the pair stay supported.

Gold trades with modest gains; still below $4,200

Gold builds on Monday’s marginal bounce, although it struggles to reclaim the key $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Tuesday. The yellow metal’s advance comes on the back of the fresh downside momentum in the US Dollar in tandem with retreating US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP bulls battle to restart uptrend amid ETF outflows

Bitcoin upholds a robust bullish outlook, trading at $85,837 on Tuesday as sellers push to regain control over the trend. Altcoins, meanwhile, reflect Bitcoin’s ranging action, with Ethereum trading sideways above $2,700 and Ripple hovering around the pivotal $1.50 level.

Japanese Yen nears 158.00: Two analysts agree it's bullish, and disagree on how far the breakout goes

The JPY is drifting near 158.00 against the USD ahead of a busy week of Japanese data and a still-unclear BoJ timetable. The two most recent FXStreet analyses agree on the direction, but they disagree on the target and the mechanism.

Eurozone inflation just hit 3.8%, its highest in three years. This chart shows why the ECB can’t simply hike its way out

The ECB would normally have a relatively straightforward answer to inflation running almost twice its target: raise interest rates. But these are not normal circumstances. This time, the bond market is already doing part of the tightening for it, leaving the ECB facing an increasingly difficult dilemma.