Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD off lows, $1900 still at risk ahead of NFP

Gold is off the lows but not out of the wood yet.
Recaptures 200-HMA, RSI still remains in the bearish zone.
Rising channel breakdown on 1H keeps the sellers hopeful.

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Gold (XAU/USD) has bounced-off a dip to near the $1906 region, as the bulls attempt a tepid recovery above the 200-hourly moving average (HMA), currently at $1909.

Despite the pullback, gold’s path of least resistance appears to the downside, especially after the price confirmed a rising channel breakdown on the hourly chart in the Asian trades.

Gold Price Chart: Hourly

Bears eye a break below the critical $1900 level to accelerate the downside. Further south, the previous week low of $1869 could be tested.

Meanwhile, the bearish bias will remain intact so long as the price holds below powerful resistance aligned around $1913, which is the confluence of the bearish 21-HMA and the channel support now resistance.

The next line of defense for the bears is seen at the downward-sloping 50-HMA at $1920.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has witnessed an uptick in the last hour, although remains below the 50 level, supporting the case for lower levels.

Gold Additional levels

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price	1911.11
Today Daily Change	-3.41
Today Daily Change %	-0.18
Today daily open	1913.52

Trends
Daily SMA20	1884.55
Daily SMA50	1869.55
Daily SMA100	1893.22
Daily SMA200	1838.13

Levels
Previous Daily High	1927.76
Previous Daily Low	1906.96
Previous Weekly High	1901.02
Previous Weekly Low	1869.32
Previous Monthly High	1906.87
Previous Monthly Low	1775.52
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1914.91
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1919.81
Daily Pivot Point S1	1904.4
Daily Pivot Point S2	1895.28
Daily Pivot Point S3	1883.6
Daily Pivot Point R1	1925.2
Daily Pivot Point R2	1936.88
Daily Pivot Point R3	1946

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

AUD/USD treads water above 0.7000 ahead of the RBA

AUD/USD alternates gains with losses just above the 0.7000 yardstick ahead of the opening bell in Asia on Tuesday. The pair’s decline follows the Greenback’s decent advance in a context of heightened geopolitical effervescence. Moving forward, the RBA is expected to hike its OCR to 4.60%.

USD/JPY climbs back toward 158.00 after BoJ minutes amid firm USD

USD/JPY finds dip-buyers and reverses part of Friday's slide driven by speculation that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. However, the BoJ's dovish Minutes cap the JPY. Meanwhile, the US Dollar regains traction as the US-Iran standoff supports crude oil prices, fueling inflation fears and reaffirming bets for an October Fed rate hike. This further supports the pair, driving it back toward 158.00.

Gold tumbles further; focus shifts to $4,100

Gold kicks in the week on the back foot, selling off to the vicinity of the $4,100 mark per troy ounce, levels last traded back in early August. The resurgence of geopolitical concerns in combination with the firmer US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields keep the yellow metal under heavy pressure on Monday.

Strategy buys 1,665 Bitcoin amid renewed geopolitical tensions

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $84,000 on Monday as Strategy (MSTR) announced a fresh treasury purchase of $143 million last week, boosting its holdings to 847,666 BTC. The company purchased 1,665 BTC for roughly $142.7 million, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday.

The week ahead: A key moment for the global economy as threats rise

UK diesel hits a record, as economic concerns rise. The market expects an aggressive Fed rate hiking cycle, but is it necessary? Oil supply concerns ease, even as oil prices rise. What’s next for the AI trade.

Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Fed and the BoJ have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 bps last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.