|

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD off lows, $1900 still at risk ahead of NFP

  • Gold is off the lows but not out of the wood yet.
  • Recaptures 200-HMA, RSI still remains in the bearish zone.
  • Rising channel breakdown on 1H keeps the sellers hopeful.

Gold (XAU/USD) has bounced-off a dip to near the $1906 region, as the bulls attempt a tepid recovery above the 200-hourly moving average (HMA), currently at $1909.

Despite the pullback, gold’s path of least resistance appears to the downside, especially after the price confirmed a rising channel breakdown on the hourly chart in the Asian trades.

Gold Price Chart: Hourly

Bears eye a break below the critical $1900 level to accelerate the downside. Further south, the previous week low of $1869 could be tested.

Meanwhile, the bearish bias will remain intact so long as the price holds below powerful resistance aligned around $1913, which is the confluence of the bearish 21-HMA and the channel support now resistance.       

The next line of defense for the bears is seen at the downward-sloping 50-HMA at $1920.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has witnessed an uptick in the last hour, although remains below the 50 level, supporting the case for lower levels.

Gold Additional levels

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price1911.11
Today Daily Change-3.41
Today Daily Change %-0.18
Today daily open1913.52
 
Trends
Daily SMA201884.55
Daily SMA501869.55
Daily SMA1001893.22
Daily SMA2001838.13
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1927.76
Previous Daily Low1906.96
Previous Weekly High1901.02
Previous Weekly Low1869.32
Previous Monthly High1906.87
Previous Monthly Low1775.52
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1914.91
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1919.81
Daily Pivot Point S11904.4
Daily Pivot Point S21895.28
Daily Pivot Point S31883.6
Daily Pivot Point R11925.2
Daily Pivot Point R21936.88
Daily Pivot Point R31946

Author

Dhwani Mehta

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

More from Dhwani Mehta
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD bounces toward 1.1750 as US Dollar loses strength

EUR/USD returned to the 1.1750 price zone in the American session on Friday, despite falling Wall Street, which indicates risk aversion. Trading conditions remain thin following the New Year holiday and ahead of the weekend, with the focus shifting to US employment and European data scheduled for next week.

GBP/USD nears 1.3500, holds within familiar levels

After testing 1.3400 on the last day of 2025, GBP/USD managed to stage a rebound. Nevertheless, the pair finds it difficult to gather momentum and trades with modest intraday gains at around 1.3490 as market participants remain in holiday mood.

Gold trims intraday gains, approaches $4,300

Gold retreated sharply from the $4,400  area and trades flat for the day in the $4,320 price zone. Choppy trading conditions exacerbated the intraday decline, although XAU/USD bearish case is out of the picture, considering growing expectations for a dovish Fed and persistent geopolitical tensions.

Cardano gains early New Year momentum, bulls target falling wedge breakout

Cardano kicks off the New Year on a positive note and is extending gains, trading above $0.36 at the time of writing on Friday. Improving on-chain and derivatives data point to growing bullish interest, while the technical outlook keeps an upside breakout in focus.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).