Gold looks to build on impressive rally beyond $5,300 as traders await Fed decision

Gold is prolonging its record-setting rally for the eighth consecutive day on Wednesday.
Sustained safe-haven buying and Fed rate cut bets continue to underpin the commodity.
A goodish USD recovery does little to hinder the momentum ahead of the Fed decision.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

Gold (XAU/USD) continues scaling new all-time peaks through the first half of the European session on Wednesday, with bulls looking to build an eight-day winning streak beyond the $5,300 mark . Investors continue to take refuge in traditional safe-haven assets on the back of economic and geopolitical uncertainties, fueled by US President Donald Trump's decisions. Furthermore, worries about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) independence and prospects for lower interest rates in the US contribute to driving flows towards the non-yielding yellow metal.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) staged a goodish recovery from its lowest level since February 2022, touched on Tuesday, amid some repositioning trade ahead of the key central bank event. This, however, does little to dent the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the Gold, which also seems rather unaffected by the upbeat mood across equity markets. Traders now look to the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting for more cues about the rate-cut path, which will drive the USD demand and provide some meaningful impetus to the XAU/USD pair.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold buying remains unabated as safe-haven flows offset USD rebound

The recent short-lived escalation of friction between the United States and NATO, over US President Donald Trump's ambitious aim to acquire Greenland, raised doubts about trust within the NATO alliance. This, along with the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and trade-related uncertainties, continues to fuel the safe-haven Gold's blistering rally witnessed since the beginning of last week.
Trump accused Canada of potentially becoming a gateway for Chinese goods into the US and threatened to impose a 100% tariff on goods imported from Canada over its potential trade deal with China. Prime Minister Mark Carney said that Canada has no intention of pursuing a free trade deal with China, the development reignited trade-war fears and benefited the precious metal.
On the geopolitical front, Russia has drawn a hard red line in peace negotiations with Ukraine during the US-brokered peace talks in Abu Dhabi last week. The trilateral talks ended without a deal on Saturday as Ukraine outright rejected Russia's demand to cede all of the Donbas region to end the nearly four-year war. This turns out to be another factor lending support to the commodity.
Meanwhile, Trump said on Tuesday that he will soon announce his pick to serve as the next head of the Federal Reserve, and predicted interest rates would decline after the new chair takes over. This comes on top of growing market expectations that the US central bank would lower borrowing costs two more times in 2026 and dragged the US Dollar to its lowest level since February 2022.
The USD, however, stages a goodish recovery during the Asian session on Wednesday as bears opt to lighten their bets amid some repositioning ahead of the highly anticipated FOMC decision. The spotlight would be on the post-meeting press conference, where comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell might infuse volatility in the markets and provide a fresh impetus to the XAU/USD pair.

Gold shrugs off overbought conditions as ascending channel breakout comes into play

The ascending channel from $4,696.64 supports the uptrend, with resistance near $5,274.38. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line extends above the Signal line, with both above zero, reflecting strengthening bullish momentum. The histogram has begun to contract, suggesting momentum may be cooling into resistance. RSI at 77 (overbought) warns that upside could be capped near the channel top.

Should the XAU/USD pair pause, initial support sits at the channel floor near $5,096.12, keeping the series of higher lows intact. A clear break above the upper boundary would extend the advance, while a rejection there could trigger consolidation back toward the lower band. The MACD remains firmly positive even as the histogram narrows, while the RSI’s overbought reading favors a period of digestion before fresh trend extension. Overall, the channel bias stays bullish, with dips expected to be shallow while the structure holds.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Fed Interest Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).

GBP/USD hits multi-week tops around 1.3560

GBP/USD gathers fresh steam and advances to new three-month peaks near the 1.3560 zone on Friday. Cable’s sharp move higher comes after three daily drops in a row and follows the increasing selling pressure hurting the Greenback.

EUR/USD pops to fresh two-month highs, targets 1.1600

EUR/USD advances markedly, revisiting the upper 1.1500s for the first time since mid-June. The pair’s sharp uptick comes on the back of a strong retracement in the US Dollar amid BoJ intervention chatter and despite steady uncertainty in the Middle East.

Gold picks up pace, approaches $4,400

Gold rebounds toward the $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Friday, reversing the previous day’s pullback. The precious metal’s recovery comes as fresh and intense weakness keep weighing on the US Dollar, while traders keep assessing easing expectations of an imminent Fed interest rate hike and the situation from the Middle East.

Pi Network Price Forecast: PI extends consolidation as bulls eye $0.10

Pi Network (PI) price holds steady on Friday, maintaining a consolidating tone for three consecutive days. Mild retail strength in the PI token remains stable, with Open Interest above $9 million, while social buzz eases. PI token’s technical outlook is mixed, as bearish momentum wanes to neutral, with bulls eyeing the $0.1000 psychological level.

Weekly focus: Some relief in US inflation concerns

Actual inflation data for July came out as expected with a 0.1% m/m increase in headline CPI and 0.2% excluding food and energy. Annual headline inflation remains too high at 3.4% and means that wage earners are experiencing stagnating spending power at best, and core inflation is a bit higher than the inflation target of two percent would suggest.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.