|

German IFO Business Climate Index disappoints with 95.9 in Jan, EUR/USD hits fresh lows

  • German IFO Business Climate Index came in at 95.9 in January.
  • German IFO Current Economic Assessment stood at 99.1 in January.
  • German IFO Expectations Index arrived at 92.9 in January.

The headline German IFO Business Climate Index came in at 95.9 in January, weaker than last month's 96.3 and missing the consensus estimates pointing to a reading of 97.0.

Meanwhile, the Current Economic Assessment arrived at 99.7 points in the reported month as compared to last month's 98.8 and 99.2 anticipated.

On the other hand, the IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months, came in at 92.9 for Jan, down from previous month’s 93.8 reading and missed market expectations of 95.0

About German IFO

The headline IFO business climate index was rebased and recalibrated in April after the IFO research Institute changed series from the base year of 2000 to the base year of 2005 as of May 2011 and then changed series to include services as of April 2018. The survey now includes 9,000 monthly survey responses from firms in the manufacturing, service sector, trade and construction.

FX Implications

The downbeat German IFO numbers served revived the selling interest in the euro, knocking-off EUR/USD to a new session low of 1.1017. The spot remains vulnerable, as the safe-haven appeal of the US dollar remains underpinned amid growing concerns over the China coronavirus outbreak.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

More from Dhwani Mehta
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD bulls seem hesitant below 0.7050 ahead of RBA on Tuesday

AUD/USD reverses an Asian session dip on Monday as renewed optimism over Iran diplomacy boosts investor confidence, keeping a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar and supporting the risk-sensitive Aussie. Spot prices, however, remain below the one-month high, touched last Thursday, as bulls wait for the crucial RBA decision before taking fresh positions.



USD/JPY climbs to 158.00 neighborhood as BoJ uncertainty weighs on the JPY

The USD/JPY pair gains some positive traction at the start of a new week, recovering further from Friday's post-Bank of Japan (BoJ) swing low to sub-157.00 levels. The momentum lifts spot prices to the 158.00 neighborhood during the Asian session and seems unaffected by fresh intervention warning from Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama.

Gold finds relief from Oil’s decline as traders await key US economic data

Gold retains a positive bias during American trading hours on Monday after sliding to a fresh yearly low of $3,870 on Friday and ending October down 6.87%. A pullback in Oil prices amid diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran supports the precious metal. However, the rebound lacks conviction as the fundamental backdrop continues to raise doubts over a sustained recovery.

Bitcoin braces for US midterm elections as historical sell-offs revive downside concerns
Bitcoin (BTC) braces for the impact of the US midterm elections, just a week after the $6 billion hack from Binance. Historically, congressional elections have negatively affected not just the president’s party but also Bitcoin. In the last 22 midterms, the ruling party has gained House seats only twice, while the three most recent elections coincided with Bitcoin’s bear market bottoms.
Why strong US growth could not stop the bond rally and AI selloff

The US economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate, yet Treasury yields fell and the Nasdaq ended October with its worst monthly performance since March 2025. The market is no longer rewarding capital expenditure simply because it supports growth. Investors are testing whether that expenditure can produce cash flow and returns above the cost of capital.



The 2% inflation target came from a throwaway remark. It now moves trillions
The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal grew out of an off-the-cuff remark by a New Zealand politician in 1988. Bond investors still price long-term US debt as if 2% holds, so a change in how the Fed measures inflation would move markets.