GBP/USD - Yield differential still favors GBP, Fed-led exhaustion to be short lived?


GBP/USD dropped to a low of 1.3452 after Fed gave dollar bulls something to lean on. The currency pair traded on the backfoot Asia around 1.3480 levels.

However, the Fed-led exhaustion in the GBP/USD could be short lived, as the bond yield differential still favors GBP. The Fed kept alive December rate hike, still, the US-UK 2-year yield spread has not improved much.

2-year US-UK yield spread

The spread, which stood at 98 basis points, increased slightly to 99 basis points following the Fed decision.

The flat lined yield spread could be due to the fact that that odds of the BoE rate hike in November improved significantly following the release of the stellar UK retail sales report.

Thus, the bullish exhaustion in the GBP/USD as indicated by the long upper shadow of the previous day's candle  could be short lived.

Looking ahead - the focus remains on the yield differential. UK Mortgage Approvals and Public Sector Net Brrowing figure are due today. Across the pond, we get the weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook

FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik writes, "From a technical point of view, the 4 hours chart shows that the risk has turned towards the downside, as the price is currently below a modestly bearish 20 SMA, whilst the RSI indicator hovers within neutral territory, and the Momentum entered bearish territory, with not enough directional strength at the time being. An extension below 1.3440 is now required to confirm a bearish continuation for this Thursday, with scope, then to test the 1.3350/70 region."

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650

EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650

EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data

GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data

GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.

GBP/USD News

Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike

Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike

Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.

Gold News

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in

Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above  $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research. 

Read more

Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda

Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda

US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures