GBP/USD trades below 1.2950 near 10-week lows, PMI figures awaited

GBP/USD holds ground ahead of PMI data release from both nations.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey indicated that inflation is currently below the target level primarily because of annual base effects.
The US Dollar may appreciate due to the prevailing sentiment of nominal rate cuts by the Fed in 2024.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair trades around 1.2930 during the Asian session on Thursday, staying near its 10-week low of 1.2907 reached on Wednesday. Traders are likely to focus on the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures from both the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US), which are scheduled for release during the day.

During a discussion at the Institute of International Finance's annual membership meeting in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated that inflation is currently below target due to annual base effects. Bailey noted that the high savings rate indicates consumer caution and added that pension funds should not be required to make compulsory allocations to UK assets.

The upward movement of the GBP/USD pair can be linked to a slight decline in the US Dollar (USD), influenced by lower US Treasury yields. As of this writing, the 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds are at 4.06% and 4.22%, respectively. However, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD's value against six major currencies, surged to its highest level since late July, reaching 104.57 on Wednesday.

The US Dollar may further appreciate as signs of economic resilience and increasing inflation concerns have diminished the likelihood of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is an 88.9% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, with no expectation for a larger 50-basis-point cut.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD eyes 1.1800 barrier near two-month highs

EUR/USD extends its gains for the second consecutive day on Tuesday and approaches 1.1800. On the daily chart, technical analysis indicates a persistent bullish bias, as the pair moves upward within the ascending channel pattern. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index at 68.89 reaffirms the bullish bias.

GBP/USD climbs to 1.3500 area, renews ten-week high

GBP/USD extends its weekly rally and trades at its highest level since early October near 1.3500. The US Dollar remains under persistent bearish pressure heading into the holidays, while Pound traders largely brush off the latest interest rate cut from the Bank of England.

Gold approaches $4,500 as record-setting rally continues

Gold builds on Monday's impressive gains and advances toward $4,500, setting fresh record-highs along the way. Heightened geopolitical tensions, combined with the broad-based US Dollar (USD) weakness ahead of the Q3 GDP data, help XAU/USD preserve its bullish momentum.

US GDP expected to highlight steady growth in Q3

The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish the first preliminary estimate of the third-quarter Gross Domestic Product on Tuesday, at 13:30 GMT. Analysts expect the data to show annualized growth of 3.2%, following the 3.8% expansion in the previous quarter.

Ten questions that matter going into 2026

2026 may be less about a neat “base case” and more about a regime shift—the market can reprice what matters most (growth, inflation, fiscal, geopolitics, concentration). The biggest trap is false comfort: the same trades can look defensive… right up until they become crowded.

XRP steadies above $1.90 support as fund inflows and retail demand rise

Ripple (XRP) is stable above support at $1.90 at the time of writing on Monday, after several attempts to break above the $2.00 hurdle failed to materialize last week. Meanwhile, institutional interest in the cross-border remittance token has remained steady.