UK wages rise 2.9% missing estimates, GBP/USD little changed

  • The UK wages excluding bonuses rose by 3.2% YoY vs. +3.3% expected.
  • The UK wages including bonuses rose by 2.9% YoY vs. +3.0% expected.
  • The UK unemployment rate steadies at 3.8% in December.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Tuesday, the UK’s average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, arrived at 3.2% 3Mo YoY in December versus 3.4% last and 3.3% expected while the gauge including bonuses came in at 2.9% 3Mo YoY in December versus 3.2% previous and 3.0% expected.

The Kingdom’s official jobless rate steadied at 3.8% in Dec, while the claimant count change showed a much smaller-than-expected increase.

The number of people claiming jobless benefits rose by 5.5K in January, against expectations +22.6K and +2.6K (revised up from +14.9K) seen previously. The claimant count rate remained unchanged at 3.4% vs. 3.4% previous.

About UK jobs

The UK Average Earnings released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the UK economy. Generally speaking, the positive earnings growth anticipates positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

FX implications

GBP/USD met fresh supply and moved a few pips below the 1.30 handle on disappointing UK wage growth numbers. The further recovery attempts, however, look unlikely amid risk-aversion led broad-based US dollar strength and increased Hard Brexit fears.

At the press time, the cable is back around the 1.3000 level, modestly flat on the day.

GBP/USD levels to watch


Today last price 1.2999
Today Daily Change -0.0003
Today Daily Change % -0.02
Today daily open 1.3002
Daily SMA20 1.3026
Daily SMA50 1.3068
Daily SMA100 1.2936
Daily SMA200 1.2693
Previous Daily High 1.3054
Previous Daily Low 1.2998
Previous Weekly High 1.307
Previous Weekly Low 1.2872
Previous Monthly High 1.3281
Previous Monthly Low 1.2954
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.3019
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.3033
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2982
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2962
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2926
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.3038
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3074
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.3094



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