GBP/USD remains capped below 1.3200 as sterling fails to emulate euro’s post-ECB gains, US CPI now eyed


  • GBP/USD has remained capped under 1.3200 on Thursday, unable to track the euro’s post-ECB move higher as global equities fade.
  • Ahead, focus turns to the release of US Consumer Price Inflation data at 1330GMT, which could trigger further choppiness.

As Wednesday’s broad optimism that saw global equities rally fades on Thursday ahead of remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde after a surprisingly hawkish ECB policy announcement, and ahead of the release of key US inflation data for February, following earlier high-level Russia/Ukraine meetings that seemingly didn’t go as well as hoped, GBP/USD remains capped below 1.3200. The pair is currently trading flat in the 1.3175 area, having failed to track the post-ECB move higher in the euro as 1.3200 continues to act as a barrier. The pullback in global equities following yesterday’s rally, which some said at the time wasn’t fully rational giving the still bleak geopolitical picture in Ukraine and recent historic surge across commodity markets, isn’t the only thing blocking GBP/USD from advancing.

Traders are having a tough time pushing the pair above resistance in the form of last year’s lows in the 1.3160-70 area. Should broad optimism return, perhaps in the form of fresh hope for a Russia/Ukraine ceasefire, or perhaps if US inflation data surprises to the downside (hurting USD), an upside break is on the cards. That would open the door for GBP/USD to rally towards late February/early March lows in the 1.3270 area.

But on the other hand, a hotter than expected US inflation report (for reference, headline CPI is seen nearing 8.0%) could trigger a drop back towards this week’s sub-1.3100 lows. Bear in mind that the upcoming data is for February, prior to the breakout of war in Ukraine and prior to the historic surge in global commodity prices. There is always a risk that Thursday’s report triggers fresh chatter about a 50bps hike from the Fed later this month.

GBP/Usd

Overview
Today last price 1.3177
Today Daily Change -0.0009
Today Daily Change % -0.07
Today daily open 1.3186
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1.3431
Daily SMA50 1.3503
Daily SMA100 1.3467
Daily SMA200 1.3637
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1.319
Previous Daily Low 1.3088
Previous Weekly High 1.3438
Previous Weekly Low 1.3202
Previous Monthly High 1.3644
Previous Monthly Low 1.3273
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.3151
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.3127
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.3119
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.3053
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.3017
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.3221
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3256
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.3323

 

 

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